计及不确定性的多时空尺度需求响应模型及应用研究

The concept of Demand Response changes the fixed mindset that the increasing power demand can be only satisfied by the development of power supply side. The resource of demand side is utilized as an alternative resource of the supply side. In Smart Grid, with the development of smart equipments and technologies, more diversified measures, more complicated combinations, more influencing factors and more extensive application make the refined models of Demand Response be a basic theory problem to be solved urgently. This application will study on the mechanism of Demand Response considering the uncertainty and build the models of uncertainty. The control model of Demand Response virtual power plant is proposed for the system regulation and optimization, in which the Demand Response and traditional generators participate together. Facing the difficulty of peak-load regulation caused by integration of large-scale new energy, this application will apply the proposed Demand Response virtual power plant to the traditional peak-load regulation, adopting the proposed model of Demand Response considering uncertainty to improve the integration capacity of large-scale new energy. The coordinating model and solving methods of smooth dispatching for Demand Response will also be studied. Those are significant for the steady development of strong smart grid construction in China.

需求响应概念的提出，改变了过去单纯依靠电力供应侧的发展来满足不断增长的电力需求的固定思维，将需求侧资源作为供应侧电能的可替代资源加以利用。在智能电网中，随着智能设备和技术的发展，需求响应的手段更多样，组合更复杂，影响因素更多，应用更广泛，因此需求响应精细化模型是亟待研究的基础理论问题。本课题将计及不确定性对需求响应机理进行分析，建立需求响应不确定性模型，并提出需求响应虚拟电厂控制模型，用于需求响应资源与传统发电机组共同参与的系统调节和优化。为应对大规模新能源接入带来的调峰困难，本课题将采用所提出的需求响应不确定性模型，将需求响应虚拟电厂作为调峰电厂参与传统系统调峰，提高大规模新能源发电的接纳能力，并研究需求响应虚拟调峰电厂的平滑调度协调决策模型和求解，这对我国坚强智能电网的建设工作稳步发展有重要意义。

项目在实施过程中，首先进行了国内外需求响应项目实施情况的调查研究和文献分析，提出了计及不确定性的需求响应作用机理模型；然后建立了基于激励的需求响应虚拟电厂与基于电价的需求响应虚拟电厂模型，并且将它们应用于系统调峰及调频；建立了网络约束条件下基于需求响应的风电消纳模型与考虑风电功率预测信息的日前机组组合模型，分析了需求响应参与调峰对大规模新能源接纳能力的影响；最后分别建立了计及电价型需求响应不确定性的两阶段日前调度模型、多时间尺度需求响应潜力及效果评估的系统动力学模型以及多时间尺度需求响应参与风电消纳的日前-日内-实时滚动调度模型，论证了多时间尺度需求响应参与系统调峰的可行性。. 目前已发表学术论文21篇，其中4篇为SCI检索，19篇为EI检索；授权发明专利1项，申请发明专利4项；培养毕业博士研究生3名，硕士研究生12名。