碳排放管制下船舶减速和航运安全研究

Carbon emission reduction from shipping industry is significant to the world environment, which is now under regulation and control. To comply with world environmental regulations, this project tries to analyze the various polices and affecting factors on shipping emissions, investigate the effects of slow steaming on shipping emission reduction, and assess the impacts of various policies and factors on maritime safety and environmental protection so as to control the risks. The main content of this project includes: 1) System analysis of the influencing factors on shipping emission reductions. Through the analysis of various types of carbon reduction policies and factors, this project develops a system impulse model including various factors. It then investigates the effectiveness of the policies and stability of the model. 2) Slow steaming and its impacts on related industries under carbon reduction regulations. It firstly establishes the cost-benefit model for shipping companies under carbon reduction regulations. By solving the optimal speed and employed vessels for different ship types and shipping routes, it analyzes the impacts of slowing steaming on the changing of operational modes for related industries. 3) Factors of shipping accidents and their impacts to environmental pollution. Through Logistic and COX hazard regressions, this project analyzes the impacts of various factors on shipping accidents and their survival conditions, which calculates the conditional probabilities for different factors on ship accidents. It then establishes a Bayesian Network model to analyze the impacts of various factors on maritime safety and environmental pollution. Finally it derives the optimal strategies of risk control. The results of this project could promote the sustainable development of the shipping industry, and reduce the environmental pollution on the sea transportation. It has significant economic and social benefits.

本项目以国际航运碳排放管制为研究切入点，分析影响航运碳排放的各类政策及因素，并对影响碳排放的重要措施—船舶减速—进行深入研究，最后分析各类政策措施对航运安全及环境的影响，制定航运风险控制策略。项目研究的具体内容包括：1）航运碳减排影响因素系统分析。通过对各类碳排放政策及因素的分析，构建系统冲量模型，进而研究各政策的有效性及模型稳定性；2）低碳约束下的船舶速度选择策略及影响。构建碳排放约束下的航运企业成本效益模型，分析不同类型船舶、航线的速度及配船量决策，进而研究减速对航运及相关行业运营模式的改变。3）航运事故影响因素及对环境的影响。通过Logistic、COX风险回归等对船舶事故、事故生存状态的分析，探求各因素下的条件概率，从而构建各因素对事故及环境的贝叶斯推断模型，研究不同条件下航运安全的控制策略。本项目研究成果对于促进航运业可持续发展，减少海上环境污染，具有重要的经济价值和社会意义。

海上运输对促进全球经济和贸易的发展起到了巨大的作用，但伴随着海上运输的高速发展，其所带来的大气污染问题逐渐受到了国际海事组织以及各个国家的重视。国际海事组织逐步颁布并实施了一系列的减排政策，包括2020年的“限流令”等，并对航运业碳排放设定了到2050年比2007年减少20-50%的目标。然而，影响船舶减排的因素错综复杂且相互影响。为更加全面地分析降低航运业碳排放的各因素之间的关系，项目以当前的航运减排政策为切入点，系统梳理影响碳排放的各种因素，识别各关系之间的影响关系，构建一个系统的航运碳排放影响因素系统模型，更加明晰的解释各因素对航运减排的边际影响。在此基础上研究低碳约束下的船舶航行速度策略及减速对整个航运业运作模式的影响，最后构建航运事故的贝叶斯网络模型，分析评估各因素对航运安全和环境污染的影响。.项目研究中将此三个方面细化为五个研究模块，并逐一展开深入研究。模块一从投资与撤资角度出发，研究干散货航运市场运力供给变化的影响因素及其影响程度，并深入分析这些因素对船舶投资决策的影响。在此基础上，模块二构建各因素与航运减排量之间的系统冲量模型，并通过模型的稳定性分析探讨如何更有效地实施各类碳排放政策而保持整个系统趋于稳定状态。模块三以船东视角构建模型，分析中国排放控制区范围的有效性。并通过启发式算法对实际案例数据进行模拟，探讨船速、船舶排放、总成本、累计净现值与排放控制区范围间的联系，进一步分析我国排放控制区的有效性。模块四构建航运公司的成本收益净现值模型，从航运公司硫减排规制措施选择入手，研究硫排放控制区范围大小、燃油价格、市场因素、政策因素、服务船舶艘数、船舶减速等对航运减排和航运公司硫规制措施的选择决策。模块五利用项目组建立的航运安全综合数据库，构建贝叶斯网络模型，研究船舶的固有属性、港口国监控检查等对船舶事故严重程度及后果的影响。