定增并购中的价格偏离及其经济后果研究----基于股票错误定价与对赌协议的视角

Recent years there are more and more private placement and M&A cases including plenty of cases with high discount or premium, which has drawn public attention. However, theoretical study on prices deviation in private placement and M&A still lags behind significantly. In the age of “Internet plus”, private placement and M&A will become one of the effective channels of transformation and upgrading for enterprises, and be used more commonly in the future, so the price deviation of private placement and M&A is of great value in our country. .Following the logical line of “phenomenon--theoretical analysis--large sample evidence”, this research project is based on the market timing theory and asymmetric information theory, trying to build an analysis framework about prices deviation in private placement and M&A to confirm the influence of stock mispricing and valuation adjustment mechanism on it, and discussing the risk in the future including stock price crash risk, goodwill impairment risk and earnings management risk, as well as the impact on stock price and performance. .The main features of this research project is that it will combine private placement and M&A, contribute to enrich and develop the research of private placement and M&A pricing, and clarify how stock mispricing and valuation adjustment mechanism will influence the price deviation of private placement and M&A. This project will provide evidence to confirm the economic consequences of the price deviation of private placement and M&A, and provide new theoretical perspective to understand it.

近年来，定增并购井喷，其中不乏高额定增折价与并购溢价的案例，引起了资本市场的高度关注，而目前关于定增并购价格偏离的理论研究却明显滞后。在“互联网+”的时代背景下，定增并购将成为企业转型升级的有效渠道之一并得到广泛运用，定增并购价格偏离及其产生的经济后果在我国很有研究价值。.本课题以“现象--现象的理论分析--大样本证据”为逻辑主线，基于市场时机理论和信息不对称理论，构建定增并购价格偏离的分析框架，从股票错误定价和对赌协议的视角研究定增并购价格偏离，探讨其在未来可能引发的股价崩溃风险、商誉减值风险和盈余管理风险，并分析其对股价及公司绩效的影响。.本课题主要特色在于，弥补现有文献将定增和并购相互割裂的不足，丰富定增并购价格偏离的研究角度，厘清股票错误定价和对赌协议影响定增并购价格偏离的路径和机制，为确认定增并购价格偏离引起的经济后果提供理论证据支持，从而为理解定增并购价格偏离提供新的理论视角。

本项目旨在通过股票错误定价和对赌协议两个视角解释定增并购价格偏离的成因及其经济后果。股票错误定价理论认为，上市公司有强烈的动机借助股价高估的市场时机开展并购活动，以便获取价值相对低估的资产。具体在定增并购情景中，可能会同时使得定增折价和并购溢价偏高。对赌协议的相关研究表明，由标的公司售股股东针对标的公司盈利能力进行承诺，将有助于降低并购风险。具体在定增并购情景中，可能会由于降低了估值风险而促使收购方敢于支付较高的并购溢价。.基于以上两个研究视角，本课题的主要研究内容是：（1）股票错误定价对定增并购价格偏离的影响；（2）对赌协议对定增并购价格偏离的影响；（3）上市公司实施高价格偏离的定增并购交易后，在风险和绩效两方面的变化及其内在影响机制。.本课题的主要研究结果汇总如下：（1）当上市公司实施定向增发时，将资金用于股权收购将会比项目投资更容易快速提升绩效；（2）股价高估使定增折价和并购溢价偏高，并带来负面的市场绩效；（3）在对赌协议中约定较高的承诺增长率将会导致并购溢价偏高，随后带来严重的股价崩溃风险；（4）标的公司在并购前有强烈的动机通过盈余管理影响自身估值水平，且无论方向正负，都会提高并购溢价，但正向盈余管理比负向盈余管理后的业绩实现情况更差；（5）业绩承诺有助于减少并购后的高管减持行为，但这种效果仅在信息不对称问题较为缓和的情况下才能发挥作用；（6）若通过期权定价思想测算业绩承诺的价值，发现业绩承诺价值越大,并购溢价越高、定增折价越低。.从研究问题与研究结果来看，本课题具有较为重要的理论和实践意义，对丰富定增并购、对赌协议领域的研究视角、指导监管方加强并购市场监督体系建设、帮助企业降低定增并购风险具有重要的参考价值。