我国快速城市化地区人居环境演变规律与调控机制研究

Human settlement is a general term used for a permanent or temporary living space of human beings. It is also the most severe place where human activities affect the natural environment. This project will employ integrated methods based on interdiscipline theories. Firstly, we will establish a data platform monitoring the dynamic changes of human settlement. Base on that, we will choose key factors influencing the evolution of human settlement and set up an indicator system for its evaluation. Finally, we will build an integrated model to simulate the mechanism..This project studies the pattern and trends of human settlement from both the regional scale and the urban scale according to the different measuring and evaluation methods. We will choose Bohai rim as the case study of regional scale research, trying to reveal its basic status, internal differences, and transitional trends over the past thirty years from a macroscopic perspective. After that, we will choose Beijing and Dalian as the case studies of urban scale research, analyzing the evolution of urban living environment, as well as the spatial differentiation and the transitional trends of livability from a micro perspective..On this basis, this project will study the process, main impact factors, as well as the law and pattern of the evolution of human settlement across different developing stages and different types of areas. .Then this project will analyze the coupling relations between human settlement and the resources-environmental capacity. We will also analyze the quantitative relations between the changes of human settlement quality and industrialization as well as urbanization, including their process, intensity, and modes. Furthermore, we will reveal the stress mechanism and coordination mechanism of human activities' impact on the changes of human settlement quality. .Afterward this project will set up a series of technology and methods to simulate the change of human settlement, forecast its possible status, types and trends, as well as simulate the evolution track under different scenarios. This work will provide scientific bases for optimizing and regulating the evolution paths of human settlement..Finally, this project will establish an optimized regulation mode of human settlement which adapt to the resource-environmental capacity. Meanwhile, it will deliver an evaluating and regulation system which integrates theoretic formulation, evidence collection, scenario simulation and policy regulation. This system will provide theoretic base and scientific method for optimizing and regulating the evolution paths of human settlement.

人居环境是指人类生活的场所，是人类活动对环境影响最突出的地方。本项目以地理学的人地关系地域系统理论为基础，采用跨学科综合集成的研究方法，在建立人居环境质量变化动态监控数据平台基础上，遴选影响人居环境变化的关键人类活动因子，构建人居环境评价的指标体系和集成模型；选择环渤海地区作为案例区，从区域和城市两个尺度分析改革开放30年来人居环境质量的基本状态、内部差异、变化趋势等；探讨不同区域尺度、不同类型区的人居环境质量变化时空规律、演化模式；解析区域资源环境承载力与人居环境的耦合关系，城市化、工业化过程、强度和方式与人居环境质量变化之间的定量关系，揭示人类活动对人居环境质量变化的胁迫和驱动机制，模拟和预测不同区域情景下人居环境演变过程和趋势，建立与区域资源环境承载力相适应的人居环境优化调控模式，形成集状态诊断、规律梳理、机制解析、情景模拟和政策优化调控于一体的人居环境评估与调控理论和方法研究框架。

改革开放30年来，我国取得了经济持续高速增长的辉煌成就，但快速、大规模的工业化和城镇化也让我们付出了巨大的资源、环境和生态代价，这些问题集中体现在与我国生存最直接的人居环境方面。未来20年我国工业化和城镇化快速发展的基本趋势不会改变，由此引起的环境、生态的急剧变化，进一步影响到人居环境质量的变化。本项目以地理学的人地关系地域系统理论为基础，采用跨学科综合集成的研究方法，建立人居环境采集、分析和评价的基础数据库，构建人居环境评价的指标体系和集成模型，分析人居环境质量的基本状态、内部差异、变化趋势，解析城市化、工业化对人居环境变化的影响，并在城市尺度上揭示城市内部居住环境空间结构及其形成机制。研究发现：（1）中国城市人居环境支撑条件整体不高且空间差异显著，呈现出东部、中部、东北、西部依次递减的区域性特征。（2）居民对全国40个主要城市的宜居性整体评价不高，东部沿海城市的宜居性较高，雾霾、噪音和拥堵是目前制约宜居性的关键因素。（3）环渤海地区城市之间的居住环境评价差别明显，辽宁省城市的评价结果整体较优，河北省城市的评价结果整体较差，环境健康性是居住环境评价得分较低城市的共同短板。（4）京津冀地区人口与人居环境质量分布较为协调，自然环境呈现由东南向西北递减的空间分异规律，人文环境在城市地区明显优于非城市地区。（5）经济发展水平与人居环境的关系表明，经济发展水平较高并非就宜居。产业发展对一个地区的环境质量具有举足轻重的影响，但产业对环境质量影响存在着明显的区域差异。（6）我国的外商直接投资和环境污染水平存在显著的空间自相关，两者在各自的地理分布上都表现出明显的路径依赖特征。（7）城市平均SO2浓度持续下降，污染最严重的城市从西南地区移到华北地区，污染浓度的变化受到人为因素的影响，尤其是工业生产活动。（8）北京城区居住环境可分为六类居住环境类型区，其空间结构同时体现了同心圆、扇形和多核心等特征，居民对不同居住环境类型区的评价整体上从内城到郊区满意度逐级降低。（9）居民幸福感在城市之间存在显著差异，自然环境健康性是当前影响幸福感最重要的因素，经济发展方式的选择对人居环境和居民生活均有不可忽视的影响。