地方治理变革中的社会风险防控与社会资本培育——以广东省为研究空间

Risk events had arisen frequently in modernization process of China, “preventing risks” and “promoting development” are same important goals in national governance, which should been achieved simultaneously. “How to promote stable development of our country by governance transformation?” becomes a research hotspot, but studies conducted in our country are still stuck in qualitative and philosophical analysis, the reform path and implementation tool of governance transformation are not clear yet. According to the previous study by our project team, governance transformation is aiming to construct a high-density and organic collaborative governance network of the Government and the Society, which could prevent the social risk efficiently, but constructing the collaborative governance network of the Government and the Society, need to rely on the support of Social Capital in local space, which has not been concerned in local governance. This project intends to take Guangdong Province as the research space, based on evaluation and analysis of the status quo and factors of social risks, analyze the Social Capital storage of the Government and the Society in local space, and discuss the effect of Social Capital to the construction of the collaborative governance network, and discuss the long-term prevention and control mechanism to prevent social risk by the collaborative governance network, and then, study the value effect of the Social Capital on “promoting governance reform”，“improving the quality of governance” and “achieving the goal of governance”, to reveal the reform path of local governance to achieve two goals at the same time, which are “preventing risks” and “promoting development”, finally, provide experiential and theoretical reference for the national governance transformation based on local space practice.

我国现代化进程中风险事件频发，“防控风险”与“促进发展”成为国家治理同步追求的“双保”目标，“如何通过治理变革促进现代化进程平稳挺进”成为研究热点，但国内已有研究尚停留在定性哲理分析阶段，治理变革的实现路径与执行工具尚未明确。本项目组在前期研究中发现：治理变革应旨在建构高密度、有机型的“政社协同治理网络”，以应对现代化进程中的社会风险，而政社协同治理网络的建构，需要依赖于地方空间中社会资本的支持，但目前社会资本的价值尚未受到重视。所以，本项目拟深度研究我国新四化建设的排头兵——广东省，基于社会风险状态评估与成因分析，研究地方空间中“政-社”社会资本的储备对于地方政社协同治理网络建构的影响及政社协同治理网络对于社会风险的长效防控机理，进而研究社会资本培育对促进治理变革、提升治理质量与实现治理目标的价值效用，揭示双保目标同时实现的地方治理变革路径，为国家治理变革提供基于地方实践的经验参考与理论

在现代化变迁进程中，“防控风险”与“促进发展”是地方治理制度变革必须同时确保的两个目标。自改革开放以来，地方治理变革持续推进，通过不断地调整政社关系来积极响应社会风险的激增，所以地方治理变革不只是应对风险的应急性手段，还是防控风险的根本性手段，挖掘其中的运行机理与中间变量，是本项目的研究目标。. 本项目组研究发现：在地方治理制度变革进程中，及时有效地识别地方到基层空间中的社会风险因素，预测识别社会风险状态，评估政府与社会对风险的认知协同度，并主动建构政社之间的社会资本，以高密度、有机型的“政社协同治理网络建构”来防控社会风险，作用非常显著；例如2020年新冠肺炎疫情阻击战中，广东省拥有40年地方治理变革的经验，政社之间社会资本储备充足、协同治理开展得好，因而防控效能非常显著。. 本项目组基于广东省多地市的调研，以数据分析与模型建构研究了社会风险在基层空间中的分布，以及政社协同治理网络对社会风险的长期防控效用：一是基于广州市对所有类型的社区进行了社会风险因素的调查与评估，确定了最基层空间中社会风险分布与危害程度，再推进到“区”、“市”两个层级，绘制了社会风险分布图；二是选择了广东省四个城市（超巨型2个、巨型1个、中型1个）进行了地方空间里社会资本储备测评，重点研究了“基层政府+基层社区”基层空间里的“微观”社会资本，再到市县“微中观”、省域“中观”社会资本的储备情况，检验了社会资本对促进地方治理制度变革、对建构政社协同治理网络的效用；三是基于地方空间各个层次上的社会资本存量与社会风险分布，筛选出了促进地方治理变革、政社协同治理的社会资本关键性要素，设计了政社间社会资本的培育方案，以广州市增城区中新镇与小楼镇的试点实验探索了社会资本培育对“改善地方治理质量、促进地方治理变革、实现风险治理目标”贡献，揭示了“地方治理变革+社会资本培育”双循环背景下的政社协同治理网络建构对社会风险的长效防控机理。