我国农村居民非农劳动供给特异性及其对经济可持续发展的影响研究

The transfer of rural surplus labor force between urban and rural increases the income level of rural residents, also make the allocation of resources more reasonable, and promote the rapid development of China's economy, but household registration system hinder and deeply affect this process, and non-farming labor supply is characterized by two main features: first, why there are so many rural labor force leave non-farming labor market in their prime of life when their work experience and human capital increase; second, why the wage of migrant workers increase when the surplus of rural labor force is still exists. The content of this project are mainly concentrated in two aspects: on the one hand, bring household registration into the traditional household production theory analysis, examine how the household registration change the constraint conditions of China's rural households, in turn, influence their non-farming labor supply decisions, and aim to reveal the specificity of rural non-farming labor supply, which is the development and perfection of traditional family production theory in China. On the other hand, investigate and evaluate the impact of the specificity of China's rural non-farming labor supply on sustainable economic development. Because demographic dividend reduce gradually, labor supply gradually become an important factor of influencing and restricting China's sustainable economic growth, the research results of this project will help to provide a way to understand how to increase the rural non-farming labor supply; In addition, this research also provides scientific basis for the reform of household registration system.

劳动力在城乡的转移提高了农民的收入，使资源配置趋于合理，推动了经济的迅速发展，但是户籍制度阻碍了这一进程，并使得我国农村居民的非农劳动供给呈现与其他国家以及城镇居民不同的特异性：（1）很多有非农就业经历的农村居民为何在他们正值壮年、在人力资本不断增加的时候退出非农劳动供给？（2）农业部门尚存在富余劳动力的情况下却出现了农民工工资上涨？本项目通过把户籍因素纳入家庭生产理论分析，考察户籍制度是如何改变了家庭的约束条件，进而影响了劳动供给决策，旨在为这一特异性提供合理的理论解释，也是传统家庭理论在中国条件下的发展。二是考察和评估农村居民非农劳动供给的特异性对经济可持续发展产生的影响。由于人口红利的逐步减少，劳动供给逐渐成为影响和制约经济可持续发展的重要因素，而本项目的研究结果将有助于增加农村居民非农劳动供给；其次，本项目的研究也为推动户籍制度改革提供科学依据。

我国农村居民的非农劳动供给与城镇户籍居民的非农劳动供给呈现出许多巨大的差异，这些差异表现在就业稳定性、年龄结构、性别结构、婚姻和教育等诸多方面。这些差异与户籍制度的约束有密切的关系，而且这些差异用传统的劳动供给理论难以得到很好的解释，因为传统的劳动供给理论并不考虑户籍等制度所带来影响。不仅如此，农村居民这些选择行为还对经济增长和资源产生显著的影响。基于这些考虑，课题组的主要研究内容体现在如下三个方面，并形成系列高质量的研究成果：.（1）对我国农村居民非农劳动供给的特异性进行分析，及户籍制度对我国农村居民非农劳动供给的影响途径。与其他研究不同的是，课题组认为对于以家庭为单位提供非农劳动供给的农村居民来说，户籍制度通过改变家庭的约束条件，对家庭劳动力的外出就业增加了额外的成本，进而影响家庭的非农劳动供给决策，但是这种影响对不同结构的农村家庭来说是有差异的。课题组通过一个修正的家庭劳动供给模型，较好的解释了我国农村居民非农劳动供给特异性现象。（2）我国农村居民非农劳动供给的特异性对经济增长的影响。户籍的存在使得我国农村劳动力的乡城迁移模式不同于其他国家，也使得我国农村居民的非农劳动供给呈现独特的特点，并对城镇劳动力市场和经济增长产生较大影响。一个主要原因在于较高比例的劳动力滞留于效率较低的农业部门，不能有效的流入效率较高的非农部门，进而损害了经济的长期增长，在企业层次上也对企业绩效产生负面影响。（3）户籍制度、劳动力市场的二元结构与农民工教育回报率。户籍制度导致了我国城镇二元劳动力市场的分割，增加了农民工的流动成本，并影响了他们的选择，从而导致使用传统的依赖有效劳动力市场假说的明瑟工资方程来估计农民工教育回报率可能存在偏误。