分析师稳健性预测风格、信息环境与资本市场效应研究

Since the 18th CPC national congress, the central government has attached great importance to preventing financial risks. Preventing and resolving financial risks, especially preventing systemic financial risks, is the fundamental task of financial work. In emerging markets such as China's capital market, how to behavior through reasonable research analysts in a more effective information supply, guide rational investment behavior, improve the capital market efficiency, improve the level of protection of the rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors an important mission, is China's capital market development is the important subject to be solved. The eyes on this topic from analysts forecast style in the past, trying to identify analyst with conservative forecast style from analyst group, and considering the impact of analysts with conservative forecast style to the company's information environment, to the capital market pricing efficiency, as well as their own professional career development. The purpose of this research is to guide analysts to return value mining and market rationality, guide the behavior of analysts reasonably, and build the new ecological environment of the analyst industry on this basis.

党的十八大以来，中央对防范金融风险高度重视。防范化解金融风险，特别是防止发生系统性金融风险，是金融工作的根本性任务。在中国资本市场这样的新兴市场上，分析师如何通过合理的研究行为承担起增加有效信息供给、引导理性投资行为、提升资本市场效率、提高中小投资者权益保护水平的重要使命，是中国资本市场发展亟待解决的重要课题。本课题从分析师以往的预测风格着眼，试图从分析师群体中识别出具有稳健性盈余预测倾向的分析师，并考察具有稳健性盈余预测倾向的分析师对公司的信息环境、对资本市场的定价效率、以及对其自身职业发展的经济后果。本课题的研究目的在于引导分析师回归价值挖掘和市场理性，合理引导分析师行为，并在此基础上构建分析师行业的新生态环境。

分析师是解决资本市场信息不对称、推动资本市场有效配置资本的重要力量。分析师作为资本市场的信息中介，收集、处理上市公司公开和非公开的信息以引导资本市场参与者评价衡量上市公司的表现。本课题在国内外已有文献和理论的基础上，对分析师的影响因素和经济后果进行了深入细致的梳理，并运用大样本实证研究方法进行了研究。本课题的研究成果主要包括分析师的激励影响机制。此外，结合近几年的宏观经济大环境，课题组在我国实体企业“脱实向虚”、控股股东股权质押持续高企等话题上进行了系统性研究。课题组初步完成了项目计划，取得了多方面的研究成果。课题组发表已标注论文6篇（其中第一标注4篇），另有已录用待发表论文4篇（其中第一标注3篇）。课题组协助培养博士生两名，均已进入高校任职。本课题的开展为分析师外部市场激励的有效性提供了来自新兴国家的经验证据, 同时有助于理解中国情境下的公司金融投资行为。