全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究

China’s domestic regional economy is facing important tasks of transition: There is explicit differentiation of regional economy on the one side, i.e. there are continuous weakening of the traditional role to pull to regional economy by the export processing value chain brought by the opening in advanced of Eastern coastal area and value chain driven by heavy chemical industry, there are urgent needs to restructure the value chain of regional economic development; there is also a large amount of surplus productive capacity in part of industries on the other side which reflects the lower agglomerative efficiency of regional economy, it is necessary to abolish further the market segmentation of the regional economy..Aimed at the task of two aspects, this project will start from the mega trend of deepening of division of labor of global value chain, explore the pattern of division of labor of domestic regional value chain within the context of division of labor of global value chain; analyze the driving mechanism of division of labor of China’s domestic regional value chain from the perspective of relationship between development strategy and formation of division of labor of regional value chain; explore the regularity of evolution of division of labor of China’s domestic regions from the perspective of historical comparison and transfer of global industry; assess the level of integration of domestic market and the trend of its historical change from the new perspective of division of labor of the value chain, and study the mechanism of formation the segmentation of market of domestic region..On the above bases, policy recommendations will be given for restructuring the pattern of division of labor of regional value chain and upgrading of agglomerative efficiency of regions, and multi-region Computable General Equilibrium model will be constructed to evaluate the impact of policies and to provide reference of promotion of transition of regional economies for the decision makers.

当前国内区域经济面临重大转型任务：一方面，区域经济分化凸显传统的以沿海地区率先开放带动出口加工价值链和投资驱动下的重化工业价值链对区域经济的拉动作用不断弱化，新价值链重构迫在眉睫；另一方面，将去产能作为供给侧结构性改革的五大任务之一反映出区域同质化竞争和集聚效率的低下，打破市场分割促进专业化分工刻不容缓。全方位对外开放格局的不断推进使得国内区域经济与国际联系日趋紧密。因此本课题将利用嵌入国内区域投入产出表的全球投入产出数据库探索区域参与国内和全球价值链分工的模式；从发展战略和区域分工的关系角度分析国内区域价值链分工驱动机制；从历史比较和全球产业转移的视角探索区域分工演化规律；从价值链分工的视角评估国内市场一体化水平的变化趋势并深入探究区域市场分割的形成机制；就重构区域价值链分工格局和提高区域集聚效应提出政策建议，构建多区域可计算一般均衡模型予以政策影响评估，为促进区域经济转型提供决策参考。

改革开放以来，我国通过逐步融入以全球价值链分工为特征的国际经济大循环推动经济快速发展。但随着国际环境的变化和国内发展阶段的跃升，这一过度依赖全球大循环的模式带来了增长动力不可持续性和发展安全面临威胁等问题。解决这些问题，迫切需要改变这一模式，深化国内价值链分工和推动构建国内统一大市场，进一步激发国内大循环的潜力和活力。本项目紧紧围绕国内大循环中“分工”与“集聚”两大问题，首次构建多个年度（1987-2017年间）的反映经济循环的国内省际间投入产出表和社会核算矩阵，并将其嵌入全球投入产出表。基于这一数据库构建系统测度全球分工与国内区域分工的模型体系，从需求、要素以及资源环境等角度分析国内各省份参与国际和国内区域分工的演变路径、驱动因素和可能趋势；从价值链分工的视角测度国内市场一体化程度，深入分析影响国内市场一体化的主要因素；构建充分反映国际、国内经济循环的政策评估模型（包含国内省份的全球可计算一般均衡模型），系统评估中美博弈对国内区域分工和区域经济的影响。基于这些分析，项目最终对深化国内价值链分工、推动国内市场一体化，加快构建新发展格局提出了政策建议。另外，项目研究成果将为开展价值链分工、国际国内双循环以及市场一体化等研究提供基础的数据库和分析框架。