能源与环境约束下人力资本驱动低碳转型机制、路径及政策研究

As energy constraint is greater and environmental pollution is increasing in China, low-carbon transition is imperative. It is critical that reaching the full potential of the driving effect of human capital to accelerate the process of low-carbon transition and achieve the goal of low-carbon economy.Firstly, we will measure the performance of low-carbon economy and construct dynamic evaluating index scientifically, then identify the stage characteristics of transition exactly, and measure the situation of China human capital with seven dimensions and four perspectives, furthermore discuss causalities between human capital and the low-carbon transition. Secondly, we will establish analytical framework of endogenous low-carbon transition, according to which we will make demonstrative research to explore deep mechanism and general laws that human capital driving low-carbon development, transition and evolvement. Thirdly, we will simulate three low-carbon transition modes which are exogenous environmental policy regulating mode, endogenous human capital driving mode, and endogenous -exogenous synergy driving mode. Then we will choose the common pattern of low carbon transition, special regional and industrial path which has the most potential of energy conservation and emissions reduction; lastly, we will design low-carbon oriented human capital policy system of the national, regional and industry- level which has the strongest driving force to China low-carbon transition. The project will expand application scope of human capital theory, extend the theoretical system of low carbon economy, provide systematic theory support and practical decision-making reference for China low-carbon transition. The project possesses important academic value and realistic significance.

面对能源约束趋紧、环境污染加剧的严峻形势，中国经济低碳转型势在必行。充分发挥人力资本驱动作用是加快低碳转型进程、实现低碳发展目标的关键所在。本项目首先科学测度我国低碳经济绩效，构建低碳转型动态评估指数，准确识别我国低碳转型的阶段性特征，并多维度多视角测度我国人力资本状况，探讨人力资本与低碳转型的多层次因果关系；其次建立内生低碳转型理论分析框架，实证探究人力资本驱动低碳经济发展、转型、演化的深层机制及一般规律；再次仿真模拟外生环境政策规制、内生人力资本驱动、内生与外生协同推动三种低碳转型模式，选择最具节能减排潜力的低碳转型通用模式及区域、产业低碳化专用路径；最后设计对我国低碳转型具有最强推动力的全国、区域、产业多层次低碳导向人力资本政策体系。本研究拓展人力资本理论应用范围，丰富低碳经济理论体系，为我国经济低碳转型提供系统的理论支撑和切实可行的决策参考，具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。

我国经济面临能源约束趋紧以及环境污染加剧的严峻形势，实现低碳转型势在必行。作为技术创新以及吸收与产业结构低碳化的重要前提与基础，人力资本在我国低碳转型进程中的重要作用应得到充分讨论与系统研究。本项目首先测度我国低碳经济绩效，并识别其时空演变特征与收敛模式，结合数据可得性以及人力资本异质性，多视角测度我国人力资本；其次构建包含能源结构以及人力资本的碳生产率方程以及包含人力资本的内生低碳转型理论分析框架，实证检验人力资本对低碳转型多维指示指标的作用机制与影响效应；再次从人力资本单独驱动、产业结构与环境规制单独驱动、人力资本与产业结构以及环境规制协同推动等视角，构建契合区域发展阶段以及产业结构特征的低碳转型专用路径；最后设计多层次、低碳导向的人力资本培育与运用政策体系。本项目将人力资本与低碳转型紧密结合起来，为推进我国经济低碳转型提供理论支撑和具化、可操作的政策参考。