城镇化、农村劳动力流动与农村人力资本形成：基于以能力为基础的新人力资本理论的实证研究

During the urbanization in China, the problem of left-behind children resulting from migration of rural residents has become an important issue in today China. The solution of this problem not only affect the future of rural areas but also a key point of industrial structure upgrade in China. Based on new human resources theory of abilities, this project is targeted to analyze how migration of parents affect formation of human resources of their children in rural China. Specifically, using instrument estimation method, linear structure relations and average treatment effect estimation tools, this project will employ detailed microeconomic data to analyze effects of migrant workers' leaving home on their children's development of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills. We will also study the mechanism how parents' migration affect children's development. In addition, we will study the effects of remittance and spillover effects of parents' migration on children's growth. While there are few economic studies concerning children's development of skills other than education and considering the essential role of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills playing in children's success in educational attainment and their other social success, our study will be important complement to current research and help to understand the effects of migrant workers on their families. In addition, the findings will provide important support to government related policies to improve the status of left-behind children in rural areas.

中国城镇化过程中由于农民进城务工而产生了大量的留守儿童。留守儿童问题不仅影响着未来农村的长期发展和社会和谐稳定，还影响着中国产业结构升级是否顺利。本项目将在以能力为基础的新人力资本理论的基础上，实证分析农民进城对农村下一代人力资本形成的影响。在具体的研究中，本项目将使用详细的大型微观调查数据，应用工具变量估计方法、线性结构关系模型以及平均处理效应估计方法等微观计量估计模型，估计农民进城对农村留守儿童的认知能力与非认知能力发展的影响以及相应的影响机制。我们还将深入考察汇款因素以及父母外出的外部效应对孩子认知能力以及非认知能力的影响。考虑到认知能力以及非认知能力在个人获取更高教育水平以及劳动力市场表现上都起着根本性的作用，而相关的研究在国内比较缺乏，本项目的研究将大大充实已有的研究内容，帮助我们更深入的理解农村人口流动对孩子成长的影响，为政府制定相关政策提供更全面的实证证据与支持。

本课题在中国城镇化背景下，基于以能力为基础的新人力资本理论，实证分析劳动力流动对农村儿童人力资本形成的影响。在具体的研究中，本课题使用北京师范大学认知神经科学与学习国家重点实验室的“全国儿童青少年发育特征数据库”，应用倾向得分匹配、基于倾向得分匹配的OLS估计以及工具变量估计方法，估计分析了父母外出以及流动对农村孩子认知能力以及非认知能力的影响。.本项目的发现包括以下三个方面：第一，父母外出显著提高了留守儿童以及流动儿童的认知能力；第二，流动显著提高了流动儿童的学习能力，表明劳动力流动有可能对留守儿童认知能力产生积极影响；第二，父母外出对孩子的非认知能力，包括自信、自尊、主观幸福感等方面的行为产生了显著的不利影响。.本项目发现充实了已有的研究内容，为国内后续研究奠定良好的基础，同时揭示父母外出影响孩子包括教育在内的人力资本形成的机制。因此本项目具有重要的理论和现实意义，为国家政府制定相关的公共政策提供重要的理论参考和实证依据。.