中尺度数值模式应用于海面风场预报的研究

The state-of-the-art fifth-generation Mesoscale Model(MM5) developed jointly by the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research was introduced to develop a set of sea surface wind forecast model over China Seas, which strongly considers the characteristics of typhoon sea surface wind field. Based on the study of three typhoons, the planetary boundary layer parameterization scheme describing the process of air-sea boundary layer in detail is gotten. The simple and effective four-dimensional data assimilation scheme: analysis nudging and observation nudging , is used to make up inadequate observations over the sea; thus the initialization of the model is strengthened and the the forecast skill of the model is improved. The modeled sea surface winds and the track of the typhoon are close to the observations. The third-generation wave model is coupled to the MM5.The distribution of the modeled effective wave height shows the reasonable modeled sea surface wind field. The study indicates the mesoscale model is reasonable and effective for the simulation of sea surface wind over China Seas; and it is practicable to predict sea surface wind field.

利用常规气象观测资料，并合理的结合非常规观测资料，针对中国海域（南海、东海）风场特征，改造美国PSU/NCAR 先进的中尺度数值模式（MM5），深入系统地研究海面风场预报模式，并为成功的海洋环境数值研究奠定基础。