广西沿海地区适应气候变化的障碍诊断及应对

Barrie to climate change adaptation is any obstacle to reaching adaptation potential that can be overcome or attenuated by a policy, programme, or measure.In this study, we set up a diagnostic model to identify miro-barries to climate change adaptation. Also we research the countermeasures. Guangxi coastal areas will be as case studies based on the characteristics of theirs economy, society, climate change and vulnerability. Firstly, building on the diagnostic framework for the analysis of social-ecological systems which was proposed by Ostrom in 2007,we will set up a diagnoatic model after decomposing the process of adaptation to diagnose the barries after setting up progress elements & structural elements, digging down from the first level variables to muti-tier variables and raising key questions. Secondly，we will summarize climate change-related threats to Guangxi coastal areas,vulnerability of Guangxi coastal areas communities to climate change, and the status of adaptation to climate change. Thirdly, A in-depth study of three case studyies in Guangxi coastal areas(Beihai City, Qinzhou City and Fangchenggang City) will be undertaken. Relevant data will be collected through key informant interviews, public documents, observation of public meetings and a citywide survey. The identified barries will be classified according to different criteria. At last, we will put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to overcome or to attenuate the barries to adaptation. Basic idea is that the study should conduct the influence of polcy from the insight of the allocation of resources, risk management, incentive and restraint. This study will play a special emphasis on the necessity of taking into account the need of adaptation to climate change in the existing policy framework and development planning to lower the costs and to reduce barries to adaptation.

适应气候变化障碍是指在挖掘适应气候变化潜力的过程中，通过政策、计划或措施能够消除或减少的约束。本项目通过构建诊断模型，识别适应气候变化的微观障碍，确定适应障碍管理的优先等级，提出对策建议，并结合广西沿海地区经济社会特点及脆弱性，进行案例研究。首先，总结广西沿海地区气候变化风险、对气候变化作用的脆弱性及适应气候变化现状；然后，基于奥斯特罗姆的社会生态系统诊断框架，通过分解适应过程，引进过程元素和结构元素、确定多级子变量、设定重点问题，建立一个适应气候变化障碍的诊断模型。把北海、钦州和防城港三市作为案例,进行适应障碍诊断；再次，在诊断障碍的基础上，根据障碍形成的原因及其作用区域，划分适应障碍的管理优先权。最后，提出相应消除和减少适应障碍的对策。本研究强调在现有政策框架和发展规划中，兼顾适应气候变化需要，以减少适应成本和适应障碍。

适应气候变化障碍是指在挖掘适应气候变化潜力的过程中，通过政策、计划或措施能够消除或减少的约束。通过引入气候变量，对世代交叠模型进行扩展后引入气候变化因素,在个人理性的假设前提下，建立投入产出数理模型，研究气候变化对产出的影响。发现在均衡增长路径的人均有效劳动的资本存量和产出都随气候变化的“增大”而增加，而经济向平衡增长路径的收敛速度不变。广西沿海平均气温呈上升趋势，各地区间气温差异变小；降水量变化不大，但降水空间分布不均的趋势越来越明显；干旱、洪涝、风灾冰雹等灾害出现的频率及强度呈下降趋势。以广西14个地级市为研究对象发现，从实证结果来看，气候变化对广西农业增长有不利的影响。广西沿海地区农业生产效率存在收敛的趋势，近年来气候变化对农业生产效率有负面影响。本项目通过构建诊断模型，识别适应气候变化的微观障碍，提出对策建议。基于奥斯特罗姆的社会生态系统诊断框架，通过分解适应过程，引进过程元素和结构元素、确定多级子变量、设定重点问题，建立一个适应气候变化障碍的诊断模型，并结合广西沿海地区的实际情况识别出适应过程中的障碍。最后，根据所识别出的具体障碍，从改善能源结构，提高农业生产效率；加强对气候变化的宣传和气候信息的传播；培育新型经营主体，发展多种形式规模经营；加强整体规划，完善相关政策、法律；完善气候数据统计体系，明确相关适应标准；完善机构设置，增加财政支持投资融资力度等方面提出了广西沿海地区适应气候变化的针对性措施。