高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链研究

High-risk supply chain with uncertain manufacturing processes refers to a category of emerging supply chains which involve stochastic and complex manufacturing processes, face high operational risk and are highly regulated. Typical industries relying on this type of supply chain include bio-pharmaceuticals, advanced materials processing and renewable energy generation, all of which are selected by the State Council of China as the Strategic Emerging Industries during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Research on methodologies as well as development of decision-making tools for effectively operating this type of supply chain will help these industries thrive sustainably. The proposed research aims to develop systematic approaches to effectively managing the high-risk supply chain with uncertain manufacturing processes, with special attention to its unique complexities. To improve the operations of the manufacturing processes, we model the batches of intermediate/final products for quality tests as a queuing network, and then develop stochastic optimal control strategies for online production scheduling. We also investigate cost efficient schemes of process flexibility design and of multi-echelon safety stock placement. To enhance the overall performance of this type of supply chain, we develop dedicated product diffusion models and streamline the supply chain from perspectives such as product development, capacity development, trading structures and supply chain security. The outcome of this research will provide the relevant industries with insights and methodologies to operate the manufacturing processes and minimize the operational risk.

高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链是一类具有生产过程复杂不确定、运作管理风险高、外部监管严格等特点的新型供应链。生物制药、新材料和新能源等 “十二五”国家战略性新兴产业的供应链都具有这些特点。研究高风险复杂随机生产供应链的运作方法，并在此基础之上开发有效的运作范式与技术工具，将有助于推动这些关系民生与国际竞争力的战略性产业的规范和快速发展。本项研究旨在针对高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链的特点，首先优化安排其生产系统，对生产过程中的中间产品及质检批次进行排队网络建模，制定生产计划的实时随机优化控制策略，并设计具有灵活性的生产过程，优化多级安全库存水平。其次，从全供应链管理的角度建立有针对性的市场需求模型，为相关产业制定产品、产能、交易结构以及保证供应链安全性的管理策略。最终研究成果将为相关产业提供综合的生产管理和供应链风险规避的理论方法。

高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链是一类具有生产过程复杂不确定、运作管理风险高、外部监管严格等特点的新型供应链。生物制药、新材料和新能源等“十二五”国家战略性新兴产业的供应链都具有这些特点。研究高风险复杂随机生产供应链的运作方法，并在此基础之上开发有效的运作范式与技术工具，将有助于推动这些关系民生与国际竞争力的战略性产业的规范和快速发展。.本项目针对高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链的特点，从质检、排时、过程灵活性、安全库存等方面优化安排其生产系统，制定动态的质量管理和风险控制策略。在此基础之上，建立有针对性的市场需求模型，制定产品、产能、交易结构以及供应链安全性的管理策略。项目共分八个部分展开研究：生产过程中的质检批次排队网络建模问题；生产计划安排中的随机优化控制方法设计问题；生产过程中的灵活性问题；高风险复杂随机生产过程中的安全库存优化问题；供应链中市场需求分析问题；供应链中产品管理问题；供应链中产能管理；供应链安全问题。最终研究成果已经为相关产业提供了综合的生产管理和供应链风险规避的理论方法。.通过4年对项目的研究，项目团队共发表SCI论文42篇，其中有十多篇论文发表在本领域重点期刊，顶级期刊3篇。具体成果如下：.发表UTD 24期刊论文共7篇，交通领域顶级期刊5篇，其它SCI/SSCI期刊论文25篇。此外，研究成果在中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院项目研究中得到应用验证，总计为中石油节约20亿人民币。并获得Informs（The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences）颁发的弗兰茨·厄德曼奖（Franz Edelman Award），此奖项为工业工程领域最高奖。