水文干旱驱动因子定量识别及对气象干旱的响应研究-以颍河为例

With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities, drought has become one of the major disasters which restricts the socioeconomic development of China. Hydrological drought is one of the natural hazards with the complicated mechanism and has massive impacts on agriculture and ecoenvironment. This current project, taking the Shangying River basin as the study region, aims to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of hydrological drought using GAMLSS model, markov chain model and statistical techniques. The objectives of this project are to identify the major driving factors behind the hydrological drought under non-stationarity resulting from climate change and human activities. Besides, Based on formulation of the bivariate drought index SPEI-SSIn under non-stationarity with the hydrological and meteorological variables. The transitional behaviors of the drought conditions between hydrological and meteorological droughts are analyzed using the Markov Chain model, and also changing properties and mechanisms behind are studied. Response mechanism the meteorological drought has in its influences on the hydrological droughts at diverse time and spatial scales are also quantitatively analyzed. Moreover, the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological droughts are also analyzed and the impacts of transitional behaviors between the meteorological. This project will be of theoretical and practical merits in terms of planning of agriculture irrigation and also management and planning of water resources and also agricultural activities.

水文干旱影响范围广、致灾机理复杂，在气候变化和人类活动影响下，干旱已成为制约中国经济社会发展的主要灾害之一。本项目以沙颍河流域为研究区，采用非参数统计法和小波理论，揭示研究区不同时空尺度气象、水文干旱变异点、趋势性及周期特征；阐明变化环境下，沙颍河流域气象、水文干旱时空变化区域响应特征；构建低频气候变化、气象条件、下垫面条件和水利工程4因素耦合的非一致性水文干旱驱动模型，将4类驱动因子分别影响下的非一致性水文干旱指数的干旱特征变化量与一致性水文干旱指数对比研究，辨识不同河段驱动因子对非一致性水文干旱相对驱动作用；在提出气象、水文干旱二维变量综合干旱指数（SPEI-SSIn）基础上，采用马尔科夫链模型，从水的自然运移规律角度辨识不同河段气象、水文干旱转换特征和机理，揭示人类活动在水文干旱对气象干旱响应中的作用及影响机制，为沙颍河不同河段水文干旱预警、防旱抗旱和水资源合理开发利用提供科学依据。

水文干旱影响范围广、致灾机理复杂，在气候变化和人类活动影响下，干旱已成为制约中国经济社会发展的主要灾害之一。本项目以淮河流域为研究区，采用非参数统计法和小波理论，揭示研究区不同时空尺度气象、水文干旱变异点、趋势性及周期特征；阐明变化环境下，淮河流域气象、水文干旱时空变化区域响应特征；明晰淮河流域水文干旱的演变趋势及干旱遭遇规律，揭示气候变化和土地利用变化对于水文干旱的影响；基于非平稳性和多源数据融合理论，构建淮河流域综合干旱监测指数，揭示淮河流域干旱的空间演变格局。该研究为淮河流域干旱预警、防旱抗旱和水资源合理开发利用提供科学依据。