制造业企业技术创新生态系统的创新扩散及其演化机理研究

Under the pressure of upgrade in China's industrial restructure, as well as in a so changeable economic environment, it is of theoretical and realistic significance for researchers to give a systematic and comprehensive study to its innovation diffusion and evolution mechanisms in manufacturing firms, and thus put forward some countermeasures and suggestions related, which are advisable to their sound growth and sustainable development in techniques and new pattern economy. Developed under the scheme of "theoretical basis - mechanism analysis - simulating model - policy study", the project firstly aims at summarizing its basic theories, defining the technological innovation ecosystem of manufacturing firms and the innovation niches, respectively; thereafter summarizing the complex network in ecosystem's innovation diffusion. Secondly, in accordance with interactions of system's agents, we will select the driving forces in technological innovation ecosystem's innovation diffusion of manufacturing firms, building the driving forces' model of diffusion, which will consist of time dimension and space dimension. Thirdly, we are trying to analyze innovation diffusion and its evolution mechanisms in ecosystem and establish its evolutionary model separately under the situations of competition and coorperation. At length, by using agent-based models, we will simulate innovation diffusion and its evolution in the technological innovation ecosystem of manufacturing firms under the perspective of spatio-temporal interaction, concluding the key point in the evolution process, and putting forward the relevant countermeasures for engaging innovation diffusion and its evolution in the ecosystem, which are based on our country's own practices in manufacturing firms.

在我国工业转型升级压力下，在多变且复杂的经济环境中，系统、深入地研究制造业企业创新扩散及其演化机理，科学、可行地提出相关政策和建议，对我国制造业企业的健康成长、技术的持续进步和新型经济的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。 项目将按照"理论基础－机理分析－模型仿真－政策研究"的脉络展开研究。首先，梳理项目的基础理论，对制造业企业技术创新生态系统、创新生态位进行界定，进而描述生态系统创新扩散的复杂网络特性；其次，根据系统主体间的互动关系甄选制造业企业技术创新生态系统创新扩散的动力要素，构建空间维和时间维的扩散动力模型；再次，分别在竞争和合作条件下分析生态系统中创新扩散及其演化机理，并构建演化模型；最后，运用智能体模型在时空交互视角下对制造业企业技术创新生态系统的创新扩散及其演化进行仿真，找出演化中的关键环节，并结合我国实践提出促进生态系统创新扩散及其演化的相关对策。

在创新3.0时代，从创新生态系统的视角入手，研究制造业企业的创新扩散及其演化机理问题，对于我国经济的持续发展、制造业产业的转型升级具有重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。项目按照“理论基础－动力分析－分层机理研究－整体模型及验证－政策研究”的脉络展开研究。首先，进行了制造业企业技术创新生态系统创新扩散的网络结构分析和过程模拟。其次，提炼了四个维度的创新扩散动力要素，并探讨了创新扩散动力的时空演化规律。再次，基于MLP研究框架，从创新生态位、技术范式和社会技术地景三个层面剖析了制造业企业技术创新生态系统的创新扩散及其演化机理，并分别采用智能体模型仿真、案例研究的方法进一步验证了MLP整体性理论模型。最后，设计了创新扩散的对策分析框架，并在考量增强创新扩散动力的基础上，立足于企业、市场和政府三个视角，提出了促进制造业企业技术创新生态系统创新扩散的对策建议。