建模码头交通系统的运行柔性

Container terminals as key nodes of transportation networks play a significant role in today's global supply chains networks. The efficiency and stable performance of the terminals are a key to maintain or reduce the cost to the logistics system. It is because of this that this project aims to model the operational resilience of transportation systems at container terminals with a set of objectives including disruption prevention, reduction in the system vulnerability to disruptions, damage minimization, identifying ways to aid in the recovery from disruptions that do occur. To achieve this aim, we need model the transportation operations and management; for this, we apply dynamic traffic assignment and other latest ORMS methods to capture the traffic dynamics at the container terminals. The other research contents include determining measures of operational resilience of the transportation system at a terminal, identifying potential actions to improve it, determining the best set of actions to improve resilience within a given limited budget and environmental constraints, and optimizing the path for a damaged transportation system to get recovered to the normal condition. The resulting models should be able to address such questions as: 1) How bad can things get when a disruption happens to the transportation system? 2) How should we spend our limited funds to improve the operational resilience for this system within a specified set of environmental constraints? 3) How fast and efficiently a terminal returns/shifts to steady states after a disruption happens? The first and third questions concern the operational resilience for the current (or proposed) design of the transportation system at a terminal while the second one requires that we identify budget-limited investments and (re-)design within a system for improvement in resilience. The successful completion of this proposed research shall boost our ongoing ambition for world-shipping center and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, both theoretically and practically.

作为运输网络的重要节点，港口在今天的全球供应链和多式联运系统中扮演着不可替代的作用。它的效率和性能稳定性是低成本物流的必然要求。因此，本项目瞄准港口交通系统运行柔性展开研究。为此，将用动态交通分配和其他运筹与管理的理论、方法和模型描述码头装卸集装箱交通的组织、管理和运行。研究内容主要包括：码头交通系统建模；码头交通系统运行柔性的度量；识别改善码头交通系统柔性的措施；优化码头交通系统受损后恢复正常生产的路径。本项目的目标在于研发一套用于评价和提高集装箱码头交通系统柔性的模型和方法，该模型能够回答下面的问题：一个关系到码头交通系统的破坏性事件出现后，码头可能出现的最糟糕情况是什么？如何最优利用有限的资源改善码头交通系统的柔性？一个破坏性事件出现后码头需要多久或怎么更有效率地恢复到正常生产状态？本项目对我国正在致力于的国际航运中心建设、海洋战略以及21世纪海上丝绸之路建设具有很强的现实意义。

作为全球运输网络的重要节点，港口在今天的全球供应链和现代物流体系中扮演着越来越重要的角色。它的柔（韧）性是物流效率和供应链连续运营的必然要求。本项目围绕港口交通系统运行柔性展开研究。为此，将动态交通分配和其他运筹与管理的理论、方法和模型用于描述码头装卸集装箱交通的组织、管理和运行。从码头交通系统建模、码头交通系统运行柔性的度量、识别改善码头交通系统柔性的措施、优化码头交通系统受损后恢复正常生产的路径等方面进行研究，提出评价和提高集装箱码头交通系统柔性的模型和方法。在码头交通系统建模中，研究了岸桥的分配、堆场牵引车运行方案、同船集装箱在堆场分布的分散度、自动导引车路径和速度优化、多辆自动导引车调度等问题。在研究码头交通系统运行柔性的度量时，研究信息在管理者和运行者之间的共享选择、不完备信息下港口排放管理策略、同船集装箱在堆场分布的分散度等对码头运营的运行，也研究了多式联运背景下港口-腹地集装箱运输网络柔性建模。在识别改善码头交通系统柔性的措施时，减缓策略（CCM）和适应策略（CCA）都有涉及，具体包括：为解决气候变化对港口基础设施的影响提出了十个脆弱性评估标准、堆场区域车辆避碰策略优化、构建一个经济模型比较CCM和CCA在考虑市场互动效应的情况下对执行港口及其网络中其他港口产出影响、上海港吴淞口至长江口水域通航风险对策分析等。在优化码头交通系统受损后恢复正常生产的路径时，研究了班轮期受不确定性因素干扰后的恢复、堆场台风后恢复等。项目负责人围绕港口航运在Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment和Maritime Policy & Management两个SCIE/SSCI源期刊组织了两期特刊。使用这些模型回答三个方面的问题：一是一个关系到码头交通系统的破坏性事件出现后，码头可能出现的最糟糕情况是什么？二是如何最优利用有限的资源改善码头交通系统的柔性？三是一个破坏性事件出现后码头需要多久或怎么更有效率地恢复到正常生产状态？本项目对我国正在致力于的交通强国战略、“航运强国”建设、“世界一流港口”建设等都具有很强的现实意义。