非常规突发事件应急行动方案规划、执行与修复研究

Developing and executing incident action plans scientifically is the key task for carring out emergency command decision-making. Focusing on incident action plans developing and execution process for unconventional emergencies, this program studies the methods of planning, execution and repair for incident action plans based on artificial intelligent planning technologies. Firstly, how the emergncy resource and incident objective with priorities affect the incident action plans developing process are analyzed. Then, the HTN planning models considering optimization allocation of emergency resources and partial satisfied incident objectives with priorities are designed respectively for simulating the decision logic of developing incident action plan. Secondly, the requirements for transmiting of orders based on incident action plan, the knowledge formalism of incident action plan orienting to execution process are designe, and the dynamic execution strategy are proposed according to the uncertainty of exectuion time for incident action. Finally, condering the characteristics during the plan execution, including emergency situation changes dynamically, incident objectives with priorities are identified dynamically, the execution effects of incident actions are uncertain and it fails to be executed during the execution process, this program will carray out research on real-time execution monitoring method and plan repairing algorithms of incient action plan. The validity of all the research work will be evaluated in the case of the emergency response process for super typhoon in Yantian district in Shenzhen.

科学制定与执行应急行动方案是开展应急指挥决策工作的核心任务。本项目以非常规突发事件应急行动方案制定与执行过程为研究对象，基于智能规划技术，研究非常规突发事件应响应条件下的应急行动方案规划、执行与修复方法。首先，分析应急资源和带优先级的应急目标对应急行动方案制定过程的影响，分别设计考虑资源优化分配的HTN规划模型和带优先级的应急目标部分满足的HTN规划模型；其次，分析基于应急行动方案的指令下达过程的要求，设计面向执行过程的应急行动方案知识模型，并针对应急行动执行时间不确定等特征，提出方案动态执行策略；最后，针对应急行动方案执行过程中应急态势动态变化、带优先级的应急目标动态识别和应急行动执行效果不确定和执行失败等因素可能造成当前行动方案不可行的特征，研究应急行动方案实时执行监视方法，并基于HTN规划模型提出方案修复算法。本项目将以深圳市盐田区超强台风应急响应过程为案例，评价研究成果的有效性。