面向实现黄河内蒙古河段目标过流能力的水库优化调度研究

The bottleneck problems in Inner Mongolia reach are severe sedimentation of the main channel, conveyance capacity decreased and the pressure of flood and ice control increased. In this project, using integration methodology of theoretical research and data analysis, taking the slowdown of Inner Mongolia reach main channel sedimentation as studied target, based on the optimal operation of the Liujiaxia and Longyangxia Reservoir, study the operation decision-making to realizing the objective conveyance capacity of Inner Mongolia reach in Yellow River. Using statistical theory analysis, analyze the channel erosion and deposition evolution mechanism in Inner Mongolia reach before and after the combined operation of the Liujiaxia and Longyangxia Reservoir, build the index evaluation system for conveyance capacity of Inner Mongolia reach, evaluate the reasonable objective conveyance capacity by improved Grey correlation analysis, get the critical water and sediment conditions for objective conveyance capacity. Build the multi-objective scheduling model to realize the objective conveyance capacity of Inner Mongolia reach, under the premise of ensuring the fixed schedule of flood control, power generation, and water supply and so on. Solve the model separately by improved particle swarm optimization and Genetic Algorithm combined with gradual optimization. Prove the rationality, accuracy and reliability of the model and algorithm through further analysis of reservoir operation, harmonious water and sediment conditions, scouring and silting in Inner Mongolia reach. The results are useful for the cross and integration of Water Science and statistics, system theory, intelligence theory, and useful for the development and improvement of water and sediment control system theory in Yellow River.

黄河内蒙古河段主槽淤积严重，过流能力降低，防洪防凌压力增加是制约河道自身健康发展及沿岸社会发展需求的瓶颈。本项目采用理论研究与实测资料分析相结合的手段，以减缓内蒙古河段主槽淤积为目标，通过龙刘水库优化调度，实现内蒙古河段目标过流能力的调度决策展开研究。采用统计理论分析龙刘水库运用前后内蒙古河段河道冲淤演变机制，构建内蒙古河段过流能力指标评估体系，采用改进的灰色关联度法评估出合理的目标过流能力，提出目标过流能力的临界水沙条件，构建在保障防洪、发电、供水等固定调度目标的前提下实现内蒙古河段目标过流能力的多目标水库调度模型，用改进的粒子群算法及逐步优化与遗传算法结合分别求解，从水库调度、塑造内蒙古河段“和谐”水沙关系及冲淤等方面进一步论证模型和算法的合理性、准确性和可靠性。研究成果有助于水利科学与统计科学、系统理论与智能理论的交叉与融合，有助于黄河流域水沙调控体系理论的发展与完善。

本项目以兼顾减缓内蒙古河段主槽淤积为调度目标，对龙刘水库优化调度提出实现内蒙古河段主槽目标过流能力的新要求进行研究。采用定量计算与定性分析相结合的研究手段，阐明龙刘水库运用前后内蒙古河段冲淤演变特点，分析维持内蒙古河段目标过流能力的临界水沙条件，建立多目标龙刘水库调度模型，计算最优调度方案，最终为改善内蒙古河段主槽萎缩的不利局面提供理论支撑。本项目取得的主要成果如下：（1）通过多种统计指标从年内和年际变化两个方面分析了内蒙古河段不同时段水沙变化特点，进一步通过MK法和小波分析法从水沙序列的趋势性和周期性两个方面揭示了其时间尺度上的演化规律和空间尺度上的差异特征。通过沙量平衡法和断面法分析了内蒙古河段冲淤量的时空分布特征，统计了河道冲淤量与水沙条件的关系。（2）在分析冲淤量与水沙条件因子关系的基础上，识别了河道冲淤变化的主要驱动因子，计算了不同河段各因子对冲淤量的贡献率；在分析过流能力与水沙因子关系的基础上，采用系统理论思想构建了过流能力指标评估体系，通过改进的灰色关联度评估出合理的内蒙古河段目标过流能力，提出了维持目标过流能力的临界水沙条件。（3）针对龙刘水库自身调度的要求及满足内蒙古河段河道冲淤的要求，以2010年为现状年，构建了保障防洪防凌、供水、发电等固定调度目标兼顾实现内蒙古河段目标过流能力的多目标水库调度模型，通过隶属度函数和智能算法的求解，论证了在黄河上游来水偏丰年份，进行水沙调控减缓河道淤积的可行性。