基于投入产出网络的中国电力行业隐含碳流动特征研究

In the context of tackling global warming, the power industry, as a major carbon emitter, is crucial to achieve China’s emission reduction goals. Due to the separation of domestic power production and consumption, power is an important production factor, and it is deployed and used on a large scale among provinces and industries, which leads to transfer of related carbon emissions and results in imbalances in emission reduction responsibilities among regions and industries. The transfer of carbon emissions can be achieved by measuring the embodied carbon in goods and services’ trade through input-output tables. However, few studies have focused on the flow characteristics of the embodied carbon born by power among different regions and industries. This project intends to combine input-output analysis with complex network analysis to construct a regional-industrial power embodied carbon flow network model, to analyze the flow, distribution and structural characteristics of embodied carbon born by power from different perspectives such as industries in different regions, industries and regions, and to identify key industries, key areas as well as the reduction of the critical paths. Based on these results, this project will put forward suggestions on industry emission reduction and coordinated emission reduction of inter-regional power industry from the perspective of consumption. This study not only provides a basis for defining reasonable emission reduction responsibilities and allocating emission quotas, but also expands the application of economic means in the field of environmental sustainable development.

在应对全球变暖的大背景下，电力行业作为碳排放大户对于中国减排目标的实现至关重要。由于国内电力生产和消费的分离，电力作为重要的生产要素在省际间、行业间发生大规模的调配和使用从而引发相关碳排放的转移，导致各地区、各行业减排责任的不平衡。电力消费产生的碳排放转移可借助投入产出表通过度量商品和服务贸易中的隐含碳来实现，然而，目前鲜有研究关注电力隐含碳在不同地区和行业间的流动特征。本项目拟将投入产出和复杂网络分析相结合，构建地区—行业间电力隐含碳流动网络模型，从不同地区的不同行业间、行业间、地区间等角度系统分析电力隐含碳的流向、分布和结构等特征，以识别关键行业、关键地区以及减排的关键路径，从消费的角度提出行业减排以及区域间电力行业协同减排的建议。该研究不仅为合理界定减排责任、分配排放配额提供依据，也将拓展经济学手段在环境可持续发展领域的应用。

电力行业贡献了中国40%以上的碳排放，是碳减排的关键环节。由于地理环境、资源禀赋和经济发展水平的差异，电力行业碳排放可能具有相关性、空间异质性和外溢性。随着省际间不同产业在生产网络中相互交织，隐含在商品和服务中的电力隐含碳也会发生流动。本项目借助地理和时间加权回归模型、投入产出分析和复杂网络模型，系统识别不同地区电力碳排放的驱动因素及各地区在复杂的隐含碳流动网络中扮演的角色和流动路径，这对于优化电力减排政策，早日实现“双碳目标”具有重要意义。取得了以下主要成果：（1）中国电力隐含碳流动总量整体呈上升趋势，流动的方向与“西电东送”基本吻合。区域内电力“碳泄露”存在，西部地区承担了部分由东部地区消费而产生的碳排放。随着中国电力改革的深化，隐含碳流动的区域性特征被打破。（2）中国省域电力碳排放在空间上正向关，在局部空间上表现为“高-高”模式和“低-低”模式为主，“高-高”聚集区大多分布在华北和华东地区的火力发电大省，“低-低”聚集区主要分布在水电资源丰富的西南地区。不同省份电力碳排放的影响因素在方向和强度上存在明显的时空异质性。人均用电量对所有省份的电力碳排放都具有正向影响。产业贡献对大多数省份的电力碳排放有负向影响，而电力结构对大多数省份的排放则是正向影响。经济发展水平、电能消费强度、电力产需等因素在不同时期、不同地区的影响不尽相同。（3）中国省际间电力隐含碳流动网络具有小世界特性。地理位置相近的省之间碳关联也更加密切，常位于同一个网络社团中。内蒙、河北、山西等资源型省份，广东、山东、江苏等经济强省以及地理位置优越的华中地区往往在电力隐含碳排放流动网络中处于重要地位。新疆在在网络中的地位逐渐凸显。