居民健康视角下区域经济社会发展对PM2.5浓度的影响机理与调控研究

Rapid development of industrialization and urbanization have great impact on the air quality, and the fine particles pollutions such as PM2.5 have hampered people`s health and cause great losses. Most literatures analyzed the effect of nature factors on air pollution contributed by the scientists of atmosphere science and environment science. However, it is not easy to formulate policies according to the research of natural influential factors. There are little research about the assessment of policies` effect on the residential health. Policies aimed to lessen air pollution were often formulated from the economic and social aspects, but the mechanism of socio-economic factors effect on air quality is not researched enough. This study build an analytic frame including of economic and social development-air pollution-residential health impact-regional development regulation, from the comprehensive perspective of economic geography. This study examines the influential mechanism and impact factors of population, urbanization level, economic level, dense-polluted industries, technology level, car numbers and transportation on the PM2.5 pollution, using an extended STIRPAT model and spatial econometric model. The impact of PM2.5 pollution on residential health is calculated by Meta and poisson regression. Several typical scenarios are designed based on the territorial development rules, governmental planning, and the socio-economic influential factors of PM2.5 pollution. The regional PM2.5, exposed population, and residential health impact will be calculated under typical scenarios. The rational pattern of region development and related policies are put forward according to the scenarios analysis results. This study could benefit regional sustainable development, and would provide scientific support for cities cooperation and policies.

工业化和城镇化的快速推进影响了空气环境质量，其中以PM2.5为代表的细粒子污染已经严重损害了居民健康，造成了巨大损失。已有大气学和环境学对于空气污染自然因子的研究成果难以成为政策制定的抓手，经济社会因子对空气污染的影响以及经济社会发展调控后的健康效应变化研究相对较少。本项目基于地理学人地关系研究视角，建立经济社会发展－空气污染－居民健康影响－优化发展路径的分析框架。依托环境卫星反演数据，利用扩展的STIRPAT模型和空间计量模型，研究人口总量、城镇化率、经济发展水平、高污染行业规模、排放效率、机动车交通量等经济社会因子对PM2.5浓度影响的时空规律及驱动机理。运用Meta法和泊松回归分析PM2.5污染对居民健康的影响。通过未来发展情景设计，测算不同经济社会发展情景下的区域PM2.5浓度及其居民健康影响，综合提出区域发展优化路径和调控建议。为促进区域可持续发展、推动城市合作提供研究支撑。

经济社会的快速发展提高了区域综合实力，但与此同时也带来了严重的空气污染问题，与之相伴随的健康问题引发了政府和民众的广泛关注。对于区域经济社会因素对PM2.5影响的空间溢出效应进行研究不仅可以丰富协同治理理论，而且对于提高区域环境质量、加强区域间合作具有现实意义。项目以京津冀202个区县为研究单元，搜集2006-2015年“十一五”和“十二五”期间的面板数据，利用STIRPAT模型识别京津冀区域空气污染的经济社会影响因素，并利用软件MATLAB和Conley-Ligon模型测度经济社会因素对PM2.5空间溢出效应。设计三种典型情景对京津冀区域PM2.5浓度和居民健康影响进行预测和预警，提出区域调控治理的对策建议。主要研究结论：（1）京津冀区域PM2.5年均浓度呈现“先下降再上升”的趋势。“十二五”比“十一五”期间环境污染略有好转，高污染区域一直维持在较高比例。PM2.5年均浓度在空间上呈现“北好南差”的特征，高值呈现“东北—西南”走向，空间结构稳定，呈现显著的空间正相关性；（2）京津冀区域PM2.5受经济社会发展影响显著，其中人口发展结构、经济发展水平与PM2.5浓度呈现显著正相关，能源消耗水平、环境治理投入与PM2.5浓度呈现显著负相关；（3）京津冀区域PM2.5浓度受人均GDP与环境治理投入溢出效应影响显著。“十一五”和“十二五”期间京津冀地区PM2.5浓度受人均GDP溢出影响而上升的区县数量分别占56.44%和64.36%，PM2.5浓度上升的区县数量显著；受环境治理投入溢出影响而下降的区县数量分别占48.02%和54.95%，PM2.5浓度下降的区县数量明显增多。经济社会因素空间溢出效应有集中趋势；（4）情景预测结果表明趋势外推情景下京津冀PM2.5年均浓度达标区县数量约占全部区县的1/3，政府规划情景下约占全部区县的1/2，分区治理情景下约占全部区县的96.1%，全区域PM2.5年均浓度基本达标；（5）政府在环境治理中应关注重点地区；在环境治理中应该适当保持合理的经济发展水平、控制人口数量和加大环境治理投入；应根据区域间的环境溢出影响调整资源分配和管理手段。