宗教利息观、对口援疆与新疆经济稳定发展的研究—基于CGE视角

This proposal builds a theoretical framework of dynamic general equilibrium theory to explore that the religious standpoint on interest rate (RSIR) restricts the economic development in Xinjiang and the counterpart financial support for Xinjiang (CFSX) advances the economic development and social stability in Xinjiang. Firstly, we introduce the RSIR caused by the Islamic religious beliefs into the model of dynamic general equilibrium theory, modify the Moslem agents’ budget constraints, and then obtain a benchmark equilibrium based on the RSIR. Removing the restrictions on religious beliefs, we adopt the usual budget constraints for all agents and define a perfect equilibrium which is irrelevant of religious beliefs. Comparing the benchmark equilibrium and the perfect equilibrium, we acquire the RSIR paradox --- RSIR undermines the benefits of Muslims. Secondly, the exogenous variable CFSX is introduced into the pattern of benchmark equilibrium, and hence we obtain the CFSX equilibrium, ceteris paribus. A series of policy analyses implies that the CFSX strategy improves the individuals’ living levels and social welfare in Xinjiang. We try to find the critical value such that the individuals’ living levels and social welfare under CFSX equilibrium at least exceed those under perfect equilibrium. Thirdly, detailed description of economic agents’ characteristics and distributions makes us define the corresponding three kinds of equilibria ---benchmark equilibrium, perfect equilibrium, and CFSX equilibrium. Comparing the perfect equilibrium and the CFSX equilibrium, we find that the CFSX increases the Moslem (labor and hence people) mobility and decreases the restriction of RSIR and financial exclusion. Fourthly, in the multiple-period framework of CFSX equilibrium, we also utilize Turnpike Theorem in macroeconomics to determine optimal periods and optimal paths according to the goals and plans of the CFSX program. Fifthly, the above topics can be put to effect by using CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) and GAMS software. Furthermore, the above results can be extended into the global case for practice. Finally, on macro-level and micro-level, we examine the relationship empirically among the Islamic religious beliefs, CFSX, the economic development and social stability in Xinjiang. That is to say, the Islamic religious beliefs lead to financial exclusion; however, the CFSX atones for the inadequate of the RSIS, promotes the economic development, and improves the social welfare in Xinjiang.

本项目应用一般经济均衡理论构建动态模型框架研究宗教利息观制约新疆经济发展与对口援疆促进新疆稳定发展。把伊斯兰宗教信仰导致宗教利息观嵌入动态一般经济均衡理论，改写穆斯林经济人的预算约束条件，刻画基准均衡，并且跟无宗教信仰限制的理想均衡比较，得到宗教利息观悖论：即宗教利息观损害穆斯林民族的利益。对口援疆作为外生变量引入基准均衡即可得到对口援疆均衡，通过政策分析发现对口援疆改善新疆人民生活水平和社会福利。细化经济人分布的描述，比较理想均衡与对口援疆均衡，发现对口援疆增加穆斯林人口流动而减弱宗教利息观与金融排斥。在多时期对口援疆均衡模型中还可根据对口援疆目标与计划确定对口援疆最优年限与最优路径。最后，从宏观层面和微观层面实证检验伊斯兰宗教信仰、对口援疆与新疆经济稳定发展的关系：伊斯兰宗教信仰导致金融排斥，而对口援疆弥补宗教利息观的不足、促进新疆经济发展、增强新疆社会福利，使新疆社会和谐稳定发展。

本项目试图把宗教信仰加到一般经济均衡理论中，定义出现宗教利息观情形的一般经济均衡框架结构，并且引入对口援疆变量用于研究新疆的应用一般经济均衡(Applying General Equilibrium)问题，试图运用一般经济均衡理论、方法与技术研究宗教利息观制约新疆经济发展与对口援疆促进新疆稳定发展的问题。.本项目研究内容包括三个部分。在第一部分中，我们应用一般经济均衡理论构建两时期模型框架研究宗教利息观制约新疆经济发展与对口援疆促进新疆稳定发展。把穆斯林宗教信仰嵌入动态一般经济均衡理论，改写穆斯林经济人的预算约束条件，以新疆2009年和2010年经济运行数据作为基础校准各项参数，通过大量模拟计算刻画基准均衡，且与完美均衡(假设没有宗教信仰限制)比较，得出结论：宗教利息观限制了穆斯林的社会福利和收入。中央政府对口援疆作为外生变量引入基准均衡得到对口援疆均衡，以援助主体不同细分为两类对口援疆均衡，通过政策分析发现对口援疆改善新疆居民生活水平和社会福利，兼顾新疆全体居民的援助方式效果更好。在第二部分中，我们在前一部分的基础上，将生产函数与每类经济人的效用函数假设从CD函数形式拓展到CES函数形式，同样得到 “宗教利息观悖论”，并且在此假定下，研究对口援疆对于新疆居民社会福利的改善作用。在第三部分中，我们尝试将模型从两期扩展到多期，建立动态一般经济均衡模型表示宗教利息观，定义基准均衡、理想均衡与对口援疆均衡，根据对口援疆的目标和计划确定对口援疆的期限和最优路径。.