土石坝水库汛期分期调度与防洪安全风险评估研究

In order to solve the key problem in flood staged operation and flood control safety risk evaluation for earth dam reservoir, a method combining theoretical analysis with numerical simulation was adopted to deeply study the flood control standard of reservoir flood staged operation, flood control standard of all stages, stage numbers, boundaries of flood stage, and security risk assessment methods of flood control. Quantitative expressions of flood control standard and flood control risk were proposed under the conditions of earth dam reservoir flood staged operation. Ensuring that “flood control standard wasn’t lowered” and “flood risk within an acceptable limit conditions” for adjusting the reservoir flood limited water level of each stage, so as to achieve the purpose of optimizing the scheme of flood control reservoir and improving the comprehensive benefit of reservoir engineering. The project takes Chengbihe reservoir of Guangxi Province as an example for empirical research, engineers application of the theoretical results, and verifies its feasibility and effectiveness. The project solves the current key problem in flood staged operation and flood control safety risk evaluation for earth dam reservoir. Research results, which have important scientific significance to promote the progress of reservoir flood control dispatching technology and the development of hydrology and water resources, also have important practical significance to alleviate the shortage of water resources and to promote regional socio-economic development, and can solve the contradiction of engineering safety and engineering benefit preferably. The project has very broad application prospects.

针对土石坝水库汛期分期调度和防洪安全评估所要解决的关键与核心科技问题，项目采用理论分析和数值模拟相结合的方法，对水库汛期分期防洪标准、全汛期防洪标准、分期数目、分期界限以及分期调度的防洪安全风险评估方法进行深入研究，提出土石坝水库汛期分期条件下的防洪标准定量表达式和防洪风险定量表达式，以保证在“不降低水库防洪标准”和“防洪风险在可接受范围内”对水库汛期各分期的汛限水位进行调整，达到优化水库防洪调度方案和提高水库工程综合效益的目的。项目以广西澄碧河水库为实例进行实证研究，探讨理论成果的工程应用问题，并验证其可行性和有效性。项目研究解决了当前水库汛期分期调度与防洪安全评估的关键与核心技术问题，研究成果对促进水库防洪调度技术的进步以及水文水资源学科的发展具有重大的科学意义，同时能较好地解决工程安全与工程效益的矛盾，对缓解水资源短缺和促进区域社会经济发展具有重要的现实意义，其应用前景十分广阔。

中国的水问题十分突出，一方面洪水灾害的肆虐直接影响着人类的生存和发展，另一方面水资源短缺问题又制约着社会经济的快速发展。我国2/3的地表径流属于洪水，若将其中的一部分洪水转化为可利用的水资源，则能在很大程度上缓解我国洪多、水少、水脏等水安全问题，因此雨洪资源化利用广受关注。项目研究主要内容：①水库防洪标准研究；②水库汛期分期研究；③防洪安全风险评估研究；④实证研究。研究主要结果是：（1）澄碧河水库汛期可划分成三期，即前汛期为4月1日至5月31日,主汛期为6月1日至8月31日,后汛期为9月1日至10月31日；（2）提出了基于Copula函数的能反映分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准关系的公式；（3）按照“防洪风险不超标”和“兴利效益最大化”的风险和效益评估准则，澄碧河水库最优汛限水位方案为：前汛期和主汛期185.00m、后汛期186.50m。项目对推动水库汛期分期及防洪风险评估理论具有重大的意义，对促进水库雨洪资源化利用具有推广应用价值。