高速铁路与出行成本影响下的区域陆路可达性及其空间效应研究

The arrival of high-speed railways (HSRs) leads to unprecedented spatial-temporal effects, HSRs shorten time distance among regions and have significant spatial-temporal shrinking effect, which enhance the social and economic relationship and create more traffic location advantage. But higher ticket prices restrict HSR demand, restrain the regional accessibility influence by HSR. In this context, HSRs' accessibility receives more and more attention by scholars.However there is an apparent lack of HSRs' accessibility under the influence of travel cost in recent most relate researches and more researches paid attention to time accessibility.In addition,the researches contents about HSRs accessibility's spatial region effects are less in our nation, that include equity and spatial spillovers and so on. This empirical study attempts to fill this gap by applying a series of novel methodology system. The aim of this study is to analyze HSRs' accessibility and its' regional spatial effect which mainly study spatial spillovers and equity under the influence of travel cost. The research mainly explores spatial difference feature and laws of HSRs' accessibility, Reveal the characteristics and mechanisms of its accessibility and its regional spatial effects in order to serve regional spatial structure research and relate transport planning. This study would take the nation plan HSRs region as evidence and its central content fall into three parts. Firstly based on GIS and database and travel cost value, apply the shortest path algorithm and network analysis technique combined with accessible indicators (location indicator, potential market indicator, daily accessibility indicator and relative network efficiency indicator) and spatial analysis model to measure spatial pattern and variation of HSRs' accessibility. In turn, reveal the spatial variation characteristics and influence mechanisms of the HSRs' accessibility. Secondly measure spatial spillovers of HSRs investment according to the regional distribution of the potential accessibility benefits. By multi-scenario analysis on accessibility and extraction, apply spillovers effect model and investigate spatial feature of HSRs' accessibility spillovers and influencing factors. Thirdly assess regional cohesion effects of HSRs' accessibility, construct a set of inequality indices system and models to discuss euity spatial feature from accessibility and traffic demand.Furthermore reveal spatial quantitative relationship between equity and spatial spillovers. This research would broaden accessibility study depth and breadth,richen research content of accessibility from the theory and the method aspects.This study provides scientific reference not only for HSRs region comprehensive traffic planning but also for regional tourism spatial structure research.

高速铁路大幅缩短地区之间的时间距离，带来时空收敛效应，但高票价却制约高铁需求，消弱高铁对区域可达性的影响程度。目前可达性研究主要考虑通达时间，忽略出行成本，这夸大了高铁对区域可达性的影响能力。为此本项目拟以京沪高铁区域为例，综合考虑车票、通达时间及各地工资水平，借助GIS技术平台，构建基于出行成本的可达性空间分析方法和测算模型，测度高铁影响下的区域陆路可达性，探究区域可达性空间分异规律及影响因素。基于可达性分析，从可达性对社会经济影响机理、溢出效应及交通公平性三方面研究可达性的空间效应。采用区域溢出效应模型，测度高铁的空间溢出效应，刻画其空间格局与特征。通过公平性评价指标体系，剖析交通公平性空间特征。研究基于经济距离测算的分析区域可达性格局，探析高铁的空间溢出效应，丰富了可达性研究内容与方法，拓展其应用领域，将有助于研究区域空间结构，为制定综合交通规划与交通调控管理的相关政策提供科学依据。

首先建立全国地理信息数据库、社会经济统计数据库与铁路时刻表数据，基于GIS技术与网络分析模型，分别应用可达性指数、时间成本与标准交通经济成本参数，构建高铁时间可达性和经济成本可达性测算空间模型。其次，测度2020 年规划高铁通车前后全国陆路可达性的空间格局与变化，探究高速铁路与出行成本影响下可达性特征。从时间可达性看，高铁沿线站点、重要城市化地区与部分边远地区城市可达性获益最多，高铁对城市间中远距离关系影响突出，短距离影响主要局限于高铁沿线地区。从经济可达性看，高铁对不同收入群体陆路可达性影响效果不同，对中低收入群体影响有限，而对于高收入群体，经济可达性空间格局将不断接近时间可达性空间格局。第三，分析高速铁路影响下的旅游空间结构变化。高铁开通后，高铁沿线城市可达景点数量显著增加；尤其是“日”字形高铁沿线城市与景点的增加值最高，将成为我国重要旅游经济带，高铁沿线城市与景点是高铁网络效应的主要受益者，高铁服务的快捷效应的延续同样离不开城市内部交通网络的优化，缩短中心城市到旅游景区的时间，将会进一步增强景区的吸引力。第四，采用传统分析技术方法探讨高铁可达性对经济社会影响程度。结果表明：首先全国外围地区与高铁干线区域为高铁可达性获益最多地区。这种收益来自高铁带来全国尺度上的“网络未端效应”、“隧道效应”和网络“叠加放大效应”。其次，经济社会发展变化与高铁可达性和出行便捷性总体上存在显著的低相关性。经济发展变化指标与高铁出行便捷性指标存在显著的弱相关性。不同等级和地区城市相关系数存在一定的差异，东北地区、中部地区和县级城市相关系数较高。第五，基于可达性分析的交通设施投资空间溢出效应。可达性溢出效应传递基本上随着到新建交通设施距离增加而衰减，然而各市新建交通设施在邻近地区产生非均衡性的溢出效应，新建交通设施方向、区位以及高速公路网络体系影响了溢出效应强度分布。中间地区交通建设更有助于推动边缘地区可达性水平提高，其交通投资溢出效应普遍比边缘地区规模大，溢出投资占实际投资比重高，区域边缘地区多数为溢出效应的输入地区。最后，探究京沪高铁影响下的区域公路可达性空间分异特征。高铁扭曲了“同心圆状”的公路可达性格局，塑造了高可达性“走廊”与“岛”。加权旅行时间的低值区由研究区几何中心向高铁沿线城市转移，高变率地区呈现出“哑铃状”，显示沿线站点地区与南北端城市获益最多。