生态产业链系统优化设计与评价研究

Ecological industrial park has been a very important carrier for sustainable development and has been proven to be an effective mode. It's one of the most useful ways to civilize social ecology. It will be a good choice to develop economic development zone as ecological industrial park, which could greatly improve and harmonize the development of society, economy, resources and environment.Up to now,ecological industrial park is developing very fast in China. However, theory goes slower than practice, which leads to many problem of the design and development of these parks. One of the frequent problems is the instability. In order to improve the stability of these parks, it's very critical to improve the optimization, design, and control of ecological industrial chain. Here, the objective of this project is to optimize, design, and evaluate ecological industrial chain system. Firstly, we will start with theory, then methodology, and the last part is verification of the research. Several concepts and models will be used here, such as topology, entropy, reliability, extendable and comprehensive evaluation model, data packing analysis model, etc. It is expected that everything goes quantitatively. A methodology to optimize ecological industrial chain is also expected, which mainly consists of industrial intergrowth theory, core enterprise (or chain) differentiation, industrial chain optimization and design, key project matching, and industrial evaluation. By using this methodology, ecological industrial chain could be well designed from the very beginning and be well controlled during its life time. It is anticipated that suggestions could be provided for the decision makers during the planning of the ecological industrial park.

生态工业园己成为实施可持续发展战略的重要载体和有效模式，是实现社会生态文明的有效途径。因此，把经济开发区建成生态工业园将成为推动社会、经济、资源和环境协调发展的最佳选择。目前，我国生态工业园建设正处于快速发展期，但理论研究滞后于实践发展，致使生态工业园在规划和发展中出现了很多问题。共性问题之一就是园区失稳。要增强生态工业园稳定性，加强生态产业链优化设计和调控就是其中的关键环节。因此，课题以生态产业链系统优化设计及评价为对象，按照先理论研究，再方法学研究，后实证分析的思路，利用拓扑理论、熵理论、可靠性理论、可拓综合评价模型、数据包络分析模型等方法，力求通过量化手段，建立起以工业共生机理分析、核心企业（链）识别、产业链优化设计、关键节点项目匹配及产业链优化评价为主线的生态产业链优化的方法学体系，以实现对生态产业链源头控制和过程优化调控，以期给决策者在制定生态工业园建设规划时提供有益的借鉴。

改革开放以来，中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就，但与自然资源和生态环境不持续问题却日趋突出。这种依赖消耗大量资源和牺牲环境为代价维持经济快速增长的方式难以为继，必须转变经济发展方式。当前，我国把生态文明建设放在首位，融入经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设各方面和全过程，努力实现中华民族永续发展。生态工业园作为实施可持续发展战略的重要载体和有效模式，已成为实现社会生态文明的有效途径。目前，我国生态工业园建设正处于快速发展期，急需在生态产业链系统优化设计和调控方面理论的跟进和实践的探索，助力新时代特色社会主义经济建设的持续发展。本课题利用拓扑理论、熵理论、可靠性理论、数据包络分析模型等方法，以工业共生机理分析、核心企业（链）识别、产业链优化设计、关键节点项目匹配及产业链优化评价为主线，着重开展基于熵模型的生态产业链稳定性分析、利用可靠性理论进行生态产业链优化设计、生态工业园区项目准入指标体系构建、基于经济、资源和环境约束的生态产业链优化设计和采用自动控制理论进行生态工业共生网络组织脆性评价等方面的研究。研究发现核心企业和关键节点企业质量高低、规模大小以及核心生态产业链条稳定性与否是制约整体系统稳定性的关键环节；并联链接结构会增强系统的稳定性，并联结构越多，其稳定性越强，且可靠性越大的节点企业对系统的稳定性贡献度越大；随着入园项目（强链、补链）的引进，生态产业链网的结构会进一步扩大，其稳定性进一步增强等。在此基础上，课题首次提出并建立了基于可靠性理论生态产业链优化设计及自动控制理论用于生态工业共生网络组织脆性研究的方法学体系，并以资源、环境、经济为约束目标，以数据包络分析为手段，确定生态产业链优化规模及发展方向。以上研究，都通过具体案例进行了实践验证。总之，课题得出的这些研究成果，可为生态工业园的设计、优化、管理和运行提供重要的理论参考和实践依据。