基于农户收入质量的农村正规信贷约束模拟检验及政策改进研究

With acceleration of agricultural modernization process and further development of rural finance, the attributes of farm households' income quality has become increasingly prominent, and how to improve farm households' income quality, increase their credit demand and alleviate rural formal credit constraints are getting more important to develop rural economy and national economy as well. This project intends to put forward new conception of farm households' income quality, and build assessment index system of it, and use AHP model and double variable Probit model to assess farm households' income quality and distinguish their credit demands at same time with specially designed questionnaire so as to test mutual influence between their income quality and credit demands with selecting Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Shaanxi as sample provinces for realistic observation at the view of credit demander. According to different income quality level and credit demand, some farm households' information will be taken as economic experiment samples. And combining with local rural financial institutes such as RCCs in sample districts, this project designs and performs economic experiment to test the linkage effects of farm households' income quality and rural formal credit constraints by using credit demand as a conductive medium at the view of credit supplier so that valuable research findings and effective policy recommendations will be obtained to innovate rural financial products and services based on improving farm households' income quality and meet their credit demands.

随着农业现代化进程的加快和农村金融的进一步发展，农户收入质量属性日益凸显，提高农户收入质量、激发农户信贷需求、缓解农村正规信贷约束对促进我国农村经济乃至国民经济的健康发展意义重大。本项目拟在提出农户收入质量概念并构建农户收入质量评估指标体系的基础上，选择江苏、山东、河南、四川、陕西为样本省份，采用AHP模型估算农户收入质量，运用Logit模型和双变量Probit模型，从金融需求方视角现实观察和分析农户收入质量与信贷需求、正规信贷约束的内在关联性；按照收入质量水平和信贷需求筛选样本农户，联合调查地农信社等金融机构，采用实验经济学方法从金融供给方视角检验以信贷需求为传导中介的农户收入质量与正规信贷约束的联动影响，对比分析实验结果和现实观察，以期获得有价值的研究结论和政策建议，促进农村金融立足于提高农户收入质量创新金融产品和服务，满足农户信贷需求。

中国农村尤其是中西部地区，被视为当然的“信贷约束”命题还缺乏足够的理论探讨和经验证据。课题组长期立足农村金融的调研发现，当前农村金融机构拥有庞大存量资产难觅优质客户和弱势农户难以进入正规金融市场筹资两种现象并存，导致农业信贷供需不匹配问题凸显。究其原因，除了收入总量水平外，收入来源的多元化、收入的稳定性、获取收入的难易性、获取收入所需的知识技能等质量因素直接或者间接影响农户信贷需求，金融机构在农户信用评级中特别强调收入数量而忽略收入质量特征，导致部分农户有信贷需求却无法获得贷款。. 鉴于此，本课题创新性提出农户收入质量的概念，并将之纳入农村金融问题研究框架，建立了农户收入质量评价指标体系及信贷约束识别机制，阐释了两者之间的作用机理，进而采用陕、甘、豫、鲁等省2920个微观农户和743个信贷员调查数据库，基于供需视角分别探究了收入质量对农户信贷约束的影响以及收入质量对农村正规金融机构信贷决策的影响，并将收入质量、信贷约束纳入对农民创业选择的研究框架。宏观层面，课题组采用1997年至2014年我国31个省、市、自治区的年度数据，测度了我国农民收入质量水平，提炼了其区域分布及时间演变特征，进而探究了农民收入质量对其投资和消费行为的影响，论证了农民收入质量与经济增长的关联性。随着研究内容深化，课题组提出聚焦个体能动性因素中的金融素养，探究农民收入质量提升、农村普惠金融发展及助力脱贫减困的有效策略。. 本课题形成如下重要研究结论：（1）相较于我国农民纯收入的变动，收入质量指数的变动与经济增长的变动趋势更加贴近。（2）我国农民收入质量平均水平较低，个体间差异较大，整体上呈现沿海及其毗邻地区较高、边境地区较低、西部内陆地区最低的辐射状分布。（3）农户信贷约束现象普遍存在，收入质量是影响农户供给型和需求型信贷约束的重要因素。（4）收入质量对我国农民投资和消费行为均产生显著正向影响，且与经济增长存在显著关联性，农民收入质量对经济长期增长的贡献率在33%到36%之间。（5）收入质量和信贷约束可交互作用于农民创业行业、资金来源及组织形式的选择。（6）社会资本对提升农民收入质量、缓解农民信贷约束、促进农民创业等发挥重要作用，需开展针对不同类型农民社会资本的创新性研究。（7）提升农民金融素养可通过影响农民投融资及风险管理行为，促进农民收入质量的长效提升。