中国循环农业供给侧改革的绿色供应链动态反馈协调机制研究

Along with the promotion of supply-side structural reform for agriculture and the increasingly prominent problems on environmental resources, the green supply chain management，including green production, green purchasing, green consumption, has become the core of the development of circular agriculture and the supply-side structural reform..This research begins with in-depth investigate the behavior and interaction of all the stakeholders in green supply chain of circular agriculture, from the perspective of system science, such as, scale enterprises, farmers, growers, the government, intermediary organizations, research institutions and many other factors. Then, based on system dynamics, it builds system dynamics model for green supply chain of circular agriculture supply-side structure reform system. Further, analyzes causal feedback loops of the system dynamics model of green supply chain of circular agriculture supply-side structure reform. And then, we will test the model and analyze its sensitivity before the simulation. As in previous research, a lot of circular agriculture research bases have been built by our team, such as Liling Mingxin farm, Duzhong Yinghe development co. and so on. The empirical research and simulation forecast are to be done on actual data of these research bases. After that, combine with some related achievement in the field of green supply chain with other research method such as game theory, and so on, the research will establish dynamics feedback coordination mechanism for green supply chain of circular agriculture supply-side structure reform. Further more, it will propose management strategy and implementing regulations. Besides that, based on the actual case study, the research will do innovation research on the method of modeling and feedback loops analysis of system dynamics, and in the field of green supply chain research..Above all, this research is of innovation on system dynamics theory and method, and is of great significance to promote the green supply chain and agriculture sustainable development.

随着农业供给侧改革的推进和环境资源问题的日益突出，推进绿色供应链管理，成为发展循环农业、实现供给侧改革的核心课题，本项目从系统科学角度出发，深入调查在循环农业供给侧改革的绿色供应链体系中，农村规模养殖企业、普通农户、农产品种植户等之间的协调机制，以及政府、中介机构、科研机构等外部利益相关方对该绿色供应链的影响作用；基于系统动力学，建立循环农业供给侧改革的绿色供应链动态反馈系统模型；开展模型检验和灵敏度分析；结合博弈论和微分方程等数学方法，进行模型仿真和反馈分析；对江西银河杜仲开发有限公司、醴陵明鑫农场等循环农业典型企业开展实证研究及实际数据仿真预测；分析循环农业供给侧改革的绿色供应链的动态反馈协调机制；提出在循环农业供给侧改革中践行绿色供应链的管理策略和有效实施方法；基于实际案例发展系统动力学建模和反馈分析方法，实现理论方法创新，丰富绿色供应链管理理论体系，帮助绿色农业可持续发展。

中国循环农业供给侧改革的绿色供应链动态反馈协调机制研究是应用基础研究国家基金项目，立足于探索农业生产领域的绿色供应链系统问题，深入研究在此循环农业生产系统中的动态反馈复杂关系，并进一步凝练其中的系统动力学理论方法创新。本项目以规模养殖业为主要研究对象，创建和发展了“生猪养殖-沼液净化利用-蔬菜（水稻）种植”生态农业循环系统，并在课题合作研究基地取得实际应用成果。在理论研究方面，通过紧密产研融合，围绕基地发展凝练科学问题，新建了“系统动力学运算过程图分析方法”。在《系统工程理论与实践》、《系统科学与数学》、《管理评论》、International Journal of Operations & Production Management、International Journal of Production Economics、Journal of Business Research、Industrial Management & Data Systems等国内外重要期刊发表论文18篇。在应用研究方面，坚持应用系统理论服务生态农业。在课题研究基地江西省银河杜仲开发有限公司建设“杜仲种植-杜仲饲料-杜仲生猪-沼气发电-能源微藻-生物柴油-有机蔬菜/稻米/雷竹笋”循环农业绿色供应链，从种养结合产供销一体化、到建设沼气工程、沼液沼渣零排放，最终形成循环农业绿色供应链系统。在课题研究基地泰华牧业有限公司开发1200m³地下式和800m³地面式常温发酵沼气池，之后又增建中温厌氧发酵罐1200m³，储气柜370m³，沼气发电机组200kw。2020年，为防治沼液污染而投资的稻米、蔬菜等种植项目实现了盈利，“猪-沼-稻/菜”养种循环经济体系取得了可观的经济效益、社会效益以及生态效益。在人才培养方面，依托国家基金课题研究培养了硕士或博士研究生近30名，其中获得国家奖学金3人次，获得4篇中央财经大学优秀硕士论文。开发案例《践行绿色发展，守护美丽家乡—泰华牧业的责任与担当》入选第12届全国“百篇”优秀管理案例精准扶贫与企业社会责任专项。通过研究，提出了在循环农业供给侧改革中践行绿色供应链的管理策略和有效实施方法；基于实际案例发展系统动力学建模和反馈分析方法，实现理论方法创新，丰富了绿色供应链管理理论体系，帮助绿色农业可持续发展。