历史时期江苏沿海海盐经济对气候变化的适应性研究

Taking the coastal zone of Jiangsu as the research zone, using the history recordation from Tang dynasty, such as chorography,essay,diary,this research will reconstract the climatic change proxy series. Due to the scarcity and uncertainty of the proxy data, the research will compare proxy series to the environment date such as lake sediments in Jiangsu. Then the research will simulate the remerature records of Jiangsu province from 1950. By examing the reconstructed proxy series will capture the essence charateristics of the climatic change in the coastal zone of Jiangsu province from 6th century. Jiangsu is the most important producting area of solar salt,the yield and the benefit holds a candle to the other areas. With the development of the salt production,tens of thousants of people migrated to Jiangsu coast, from Anhui province, Hubei province,and other areas. The population of this area is incresed. In order to prevent the disasters, storm surge for example, the seawall was builded. The most famous seawall is Fangongdi,from Lvsi to Funing, which is memorializing Fanzhongyan. With the coastal acceretion the seawall advanced to the sea. So the seawall recorded the knowledge of the people understanding the nature. Based on the numerous historical data, the research will collect and summarize the salt production data, such as the number of the immigrant,the distrubition of the immigrant, the yield and the benefit in each year. Using the salt production data and the seawall building data,the research will strucure GIS on unified platform. Then the research will establish the response model, which can simulate the different climatical scene and give the adaption in historical period.

本研究以江苏沿海为研究区域，通过自唐以降的历史文献为主要资料重建区域气候变化序列，以本区环境数据为对照序列进行比对，以实际观测数据为检验数据，通过海气耦合模式进行模拟对重建序列进行检验，以确定具有一定精度的区域气候变化序列。通过对本区域盐业生产资料的梳理，确定不同气候变化情境对江苏沿海经济生产的影响及经济系统的响应与适应。通过本区人口变化历史数据研究分析气候变化对区域社会体系的影响及区域社会系统对气候变化的响应与适应。通过的沿海海塘建设的历史资料梳理，综合反映区域社会经济系统对区域气候变化的适应。

气候变化的适应性研究是气候变化研究的重要内容。江苏沿海地区历史上环境变化显著，在中国东部沿海具有一定的代表性。自唐代以来，江苏沿海的盐业生产在全国占据重要地位，对全国经济具有举足轻重的地位。本研究以《三千年气象记录总集》、《中国气象灾害大典》以及各地方志为主要数据来源，整理江苏沿海历史天气记录与自然灾害记录，逐条摘录，建立了江苏沿海历史气象数据库以及自然灾害数据库。与已有中国东部气候变化序列进行比对，表明江苏沿海自唐代以来气候变化符合中国东部地区气候变化。对江苏自秦代以来的自然灾害进行时空分布研究，发现江苏地区的洪涝灾害对盐业生产影响较大，洪涝灾害与长时间异常降水存在关联，且会受到厄尔尼诺的影响，同时人类活动会导致水流下泄不畅，进而影响洪涝灾害发生的时空性。明清时期江苏苏北平原洪涝灾害频发，对盐业生产产生不利影响，很大程度上是人为活动不当造成的。对江苏沿海盐业经济数据进行收集整理，发现江苏沿海盐业生产自明清时期以来规模逐渐扩大，盐业人口数量波动中稳定上升，沿海地区常住人口数量上升，盐业生产区域在逐渐扩大。以江苏地区的地名作为研究对象，研究发现地名反映了沿海盐业生产向海扩张以及随运输线扩展的态势。本研究结果可以为未来江苏地区较高精度的气候变化研究提供基础数据，盐业数据可以为未来进一步研究江苏沿海社会经济提供微观数据，可以从更高的精度探讨历史时期沿海地区经济与自然环境、社会环境的相互影响。