补贴政策对农户林业生产行为调整和生产效率的影响研究

The obvious external characteristics of forest cause private supply less than socially desirable supply. As people increased the expectations of the forestry ecological and social responsibility, the directivity and implementation effect of forestry subsidies has become the focus of attention. However，only through the farmers’ production behavioral response can the forestry subsidies effect，the mechanism of farmers’ act response to forestry subsidies is the "black box" to resolve the policy effect of forestry subsidies. The study analyzes the mechanism of farmers’ producing behavior response to forestry subsidy policies theoretically, and build a dynamic adjustment model based on farmers’ forestry production characteristics. Then, analyzes the degree and speed of production behavior of farmers’ response to forestry subsidies empirically, taking oil-tea camellia as an example to dig mechanism behind the different behaviors and the reasons. On this basis, using a three-stage DEA model to estimate the relationship between different behaviors response to forestry subsidies and forestry production efficiency to reveal the relationship between the extent and speed of different responses to forestry subsidies and the achievement of policy objectives. From an academic perspective, the study will take an economic interpretation of farmers’ production decisions under the forestry subsidy policies；From the application point of view, from the perspective of farming household behaviors response to evaluate the performance of forestry subsidy policies will provide new ideas and evidence for introducing more targeted forestry subsidy policies.

林业明显的正外部性导致私人供给小于社会合意供给。随着人们对林业所承担的生态和社会责任期待的增强，林业补贴政策实施的指向性和效果日益成为社会关注热点。但林业补贴政策只有通过影响农户生产行为才能实现政策效果，因此，农户对林业补贴政策的行为响应机理是解析林业补贴政策效果的“黑匣子”。本研究在农户生产行为对林业补贴政策响应机理理论分析基础上，基于农户林业生产特点构建动态的农户林业生产调整模型，以油茶为案例树种实证分析农户生产行为对林业补贴政策的反应程度和速度，挖掘不同行为响应背后的机理。在此基础上，利用三阶段DEA模型测算农户不同林业生产响应行为与林业生产效率的关系，揭示农户对林业补贴政策不同反应程度和速度与政策目标实现之间的关系。从学术角度看，该研究将对林业补贴政策下的农户生产决策进行经济解释；从应用角度看，从农户行为响应视角评价林业补贴政策绩效将为出台更有针对性的补贴政策提供思路和依据。

林业明显的正外部性导致私人供给小于社会合意供给，通过林业补贴政策引导农户生产行为的调整以缩小私人供给与社会供给间的差异具有重要意义。但林业补贴政策能否实现政策目标取决于是否遵循农户对补贴政策的反应机制。那么，异质性农户对林业补贴政策的行为响应机理如何？补贴政策对农户林业生产行为调整和生产效率有什么影响？基于农户行为响应理论，构建了理论模型分析农户林业生产行为对补贴政策的响应机理。基于大样本和案例调查数据，运用计量经济分析、案例研究法等考察了补贴政策的农户林业生产行为响应结果、农户林业生产行为调整的影响因素、补贴政策对农户林业生产行为调整的影响和补贴政策对农户林业生产效率的影响。研究结果表明：（1）木本粮油补贴政策对扩大木本粮油种植规模具有积极作用；以造林补贴为主的木本粮油补贴政策导致“重造轻管”，对木本粮油生产率的提高效果有限；最低补贴面积太高或补贴标准太低造成小规模种植户种植规模的减少和福利的损失；只同种植面积挂钩的生产环节补贴政策使大规模种植户的生产效率低于小规模种植户。（2）补贴政策等林业公共财政政策增加了农户参与林地市场流转、参与非农就业和发展林下经济等林业生产行为调整的可能性，并在一定程度上提高了林业生产行为调整农户的家庭经济福利。（3）林业补贴政策对农户林业种植面积调整比率有显著的正向影响，但对劳动力投入调整比率、资金投入调整比率影响不显著，林业补贴政策中提高种植面积的预期政策效应得以实现。（4）单位面积补贴收入和总补贴收入均对油茶经营主体的规模效率具有显著的直接正向效应，但单位面积补贴收入和总补贴收入的间接影响效应不明显。林业补贴政策能提高林业生产规模效率。在理论和实证研究基础上，提出了一系列提高林业补贴政策效果的政策建议。本研究为完善林业补贴政策效果分析框架和提高林业补贴政策制定的目标瞄准性提供一定的决策依据。