对外贸易结构调整对劳动力市场的影响机制与政策研究

The development of foreign trade in China provides tremendous job opportunities, facilitates the transformation of the surplus rural force, increases the revenue of workforce, and makes a great contribution to employment and revenue increase. Nowadays the changes of foreign trade structure influence the issues of structural imbalance of labor demand and supply, decrease the population dividends and cause population aging. Based on the theoretical connection between product market and labor market, this project will develop theoretical and empirical research on structural adjustment of foreign trade products, principle structure adjustment, demand of labor force, wages, human resource capital, employment structure, working force flow, coordination between foreign trade and employment. Furthermore, the project will explore the impact and mechanism of restructuring of foreign trade on labor market by case studies of typical industries in east, middle and west of China, and to avoid immiserizing growth and comparative trap. By evaluating the policies of foreign trade structure and labor force market, the project will propose the driving mechanism and policies of promoting foreign trade structure adjustment and win-win mechanism of employment and revenue increase.

我国对外贸易的发展提供了大量的就业岗位，促进了农村剩余劳动力的转移，增加了劳动者的收入，为就业和收入增长做了重要贡献。当前劳动力供求的结构性矛盾、人口数量红利的下降，以及人口老龄化等问题都与对外贸易结构的变化有着一定的联系。本课题基于产品市场与劳动力市场间的理论联系，从理论模型实证数据可获得性的基础上，对贸易产品结构调整、贸易主体结构调整、贸易产品区域结构调整对劳动力的就业、劳动力需求、工资、人力资本、就业结构、劳动力流动、贸易与就业的协调度、对外贸易产品市场与劳动力市场均衡性等问题进行理论与实证研究，并对我国东、中、西部、典型行业进行案例研究，探索对外贸易结构调整对劳动力市场的影响作用机制，避免陷入对外贸易的“贫困化增长”和落入“比较优势陷阱”，也通过对当前对外贸易结构调整政策和劳动力市场政策的评估，提出促进对外贸易结构调整与就业和收入增长的“双赢”机制与政策。

对外贸易作为拉动我国经济增长的“三驾马车”之一，不仅对我国国民经济增长、产业结构优化产生积极影响，同时对于实现充分就业、改善和保障民生、增进人民福祉具有重要意义。改革开放以来，随着我国对外开放程度的不断加深，我国逐渐形成了一个与国际经济密切联系融合的经济体，对外贸易结构发生深刻变化。当前，我国对外贸易由加工贸易、劳动密集型产品出口为主、低附加值产品出口占主体，向自主品牌、高端制造装备、高技术含量、高附加值的产品出口转变，对外贸易政策调整势必会影响国内劳动力市场的运行。厘清对外贸易与劳动力市场的内在联系，对中国实现人口、资源可持续发展和提高劳动者福利具有重要的现实意义。本研究成果通过梳理对外贸易与劳动力市场的理论和现有研究，从劳动力就业、劳动力需求、劳动力供给、劳动力市场均衡、劳动力工资与收入、劳动生产率、劳动力分工等角度出发，对对外贸易与劳动力市场的内在联系进行了探讨，并结合我国当下对外贸易与劳动力市场的发展现状，提出既有利于对外贸易结构调整目标，同时也有利于扩大就业和提高收入的劳动力市场政策。