基于上升性理论的社会经济水循环及调控机制研究:以钱塘江流域杭州段为例

Water resources scarcity for pollution is a strategic bottleneck of sustainable development in Qian-Tang River Basin. The concept of social water cycle expands the problems of water resources management to social and economic fields from water system. It offers a new policy system for sustainable development to solve the problems of water resources management that the study on socio-economic regulation and control for water resources...The research topic of this project is the mechanism of socio-economic regulation and control for water resources in Qian-Tang River Basin. Research contents are as follows: (1) Accounting the product-related and consumption virtual water amount flowing in socio-economic system of the Qian-Tang River Basin, using the production tree method devised by Chapagain and Hoekstra. (2) Making the input/output table of water resources in socio-economic system of regions based on the input/output method.(3)Then, using ascendency method of an evolution model put forward by Ulanowicz, social water cycle network are constructed and analyzed considering the difference between virtual blue water and virtual green water. (4) Measuring social adaptive capacity for water scarcity of representative region in Qian-Tang River Basin using the analytic network process (ANP) method, from the understanding human ecosystem. The human ecosystem is composed of six subsystems: natural resources, socio-economic resources, cultural resources, social order, social rule, social cycle. We can gain frame that measuring social adaptive capacity, if the key natural resources is eliminated. So the potentiality of socio-economic means about water management will be estimated. (5) Conceiving the socio-economic regulation and control for water resources in Qian-Tang River Basin, based on above studies, using ascendency method and system dynamics(SD) model... This project tries to conceiving the socio-economic regulation and control for water resources ground on ascendency method of an evolution model, aiming at offering a new approach to solve the problem of Water resources scarcity for pollution in Qian-Tang River Basin, providing scientific support for decision-making to adapt new social, economic and institutional tool to achieve water resources sustainability and region sustainable development.

水资源水质型短缺是钱塘江流域可持续发展面临的一个战略瓶颈，社会经济水循环将水资源问题扩展到社会经济领域，社会经济调控为流域可持续发展突破水资源短缺瓶颈提供了新的对策集。本项目在资料收集、文献综述和实地调研基础上，采用生产树方法核算钱塘江流域社会经济系统虚拟水量；在区分虚拟蓝水和绿水情况下，编制典型区域水资源投入产出表；通过投入产出分析把握社会经济水循环网络；在水资源社会适应能力评价基础上，采用上升性理论和系统动力学模型，探索钱塘江流域社会水循环动力机制，明晰流域水资源管理的社会经济调控机制；设计流域水资源社会化管理战略，为解决流域水资源问题提供新的战略思路。

水质性水短缺是钱塘江流域可持续发展面临的重大瓶颈。水质性短缺问题主要来自社会经济水循环中的用水环节，水资源社会经济调控主要是运用社会、行政、经济等手段控制用水环节的用水强度、用水效率、污水处理程度，从而改善排水质量，达到水资源可持续利用目标。从人类水资源开发利用过程入手，以钱塘江流域中下游地区作为研究区域，采用灰色水足迹、系统动力学等方法，实证分析社会经济水循环过程中水质性水短缺的主要根源，并对流域水资源的社会经济调控仿真研究；在此基础上，针对具体的社会经济调控手段（用水户协会和集成水资源管理）进行调控绩效的定量研究，验证流域水资源社会经济调控效果；同时针对水资源与地区社会经济发展的关系进行了定量研究，深入分析流域水资源与社会经济之间的相互作用机制。主要结论有：①钱塘江沿江四大地区（杭州、绍兴、金华和衢州）2012年灰色水足迹为1326.47×108m3，是当年水资源总量的2.13倍；工业污染是灰色水足迹的主要来源，其平均贡献率为78%；累积灰色水足迹是钱塘江流域水质性水短缺的直接原因。控制灰色水足迹是解决水质性水短缺的直接途径。②仿真模拟研究发现在相同的社会经济环境下，不同的政策组合所得到的调控效果不同。一般来说，经济财税政策调控要好于产权制度政策，两种政策的组合要好于单一的调控政策。相同的水调控政策在不同的局部区域效果也不同。③当前社会调控效果并不理想，在1为满分的情况下，抽样的35个村级用水户协会执行绩效指数分布在 0.09 ～ 0.45 之间，地区集成水资源管理水平仅为0.283；社会经济调控手段执行效果受到地区的自然条件、社会网络关系、社会资本、经济、政策等因素的影响；④ 地区水资源对GDP有约束作用，对城市化也有约束作用；经济增长和水资源消耗是城市化的原因；因此新型城镇化过程中，注重经济发展的同时，也要对水资源保护更加关注。⑤在社会经济水循环视角下，流域水资源可持续管理必须依靠社会经济调控手段。在微观层面上，经济调控手段主要有水价、水权、污水处理费、水资源费、污水排污费等；社会调控手段有水生态补偿、节约用水立法、排污收费制度立法等。在宏观层面上，经济调控手段有财政转移制度、产业结构调整，社会调控手段有虚拟水战略、公共管理政策。