跨国界土地利用变化与疆土安全研究——以中越陆地国界广西段为例

The frontier is a support area of important strategy for China to promote “the Belt and Road”. It is also a sensitive area that countries in the world race to get benefits from it. And under the interactive influence of multiple factors such as the game playing of geopolitics and cross-border land use and so on, China’s border security has increasingly become a prominent problem of affecting national security. Thus, territory security has also become a major scientific question .The project follows cross-border land use—territory security—dynamic relation—warning and prevention-control. First and foremost, it uses 4s and measuring technique of total station to do a dynamic monitor and the scenario stimulation to land use change in Guangxi section since 2001 within the limitation of bilateral 0 to 3 km. And it will reveal the law of land use change in this section profoundly. Besides, it puts forward the concept and connotation of territory security, and it constructs an index system of territory security evaluation in the index of the border stability, the match rate of land supply, the variety of ecosystem, the stability between generation and generation, and so on. Then, it constructs a rational model to analysis the interaction among the land use change of cross-border and the security in its form, the economy security, the ecological security and the security between generation and generation of territory. Thus it can help to realize the dynamic response mechanism between the land use change of cross-border and the territory security. Last but not least, it will build a warning system of territory security based on four-dimensional. Therefore, it puts forward prevention-control tactics of territory security. And this will offer a reference in theoretical study of territory security and system building of national security.

边疆是中国推进“一带一路”建设的重要战略支撑区和国际竞相渗透的敏感区域。受地缘政治博弈、跨国界土地利用等多重因素的交互影响，我国边疆安全日益成为影响国家安全的突出问题，疆土安全也成为一个重大的科学问题。本项目以跨国界土地利用——疆土安全——动态关系——预警防控为主线，首先利用4S和全站仪联合测量技术对中越国界线广西段双边0-3公里范围2001年以来的土地利用变化进行动态监测和情景模拟，深刻揭示该区域土地利用变化规律；其次提出疆土安全的概念和内涵，从国境线稳定性、土地供给匹配度、生态多样性、代际稳定性指数等方面构建疆土安全评价指标体系。建立关系模型，分析跨国界土地利用变化与疆土形态安全、经济安全、生态安全和代际安全互动关系，明晰跨国界土地利用变化与疆土安全的动态响应机理；最后构建“四维”疆土安全预警体系，提出疆土安全的防控对策，为推动疆土安全理论研究，构建完善的国家安全体系提供借鉴。

边疆是中国推进“一带一路”建设的重要战略支撑区和国际竞相渗透的敏感区域。我国边疆安全日益成为影响国家安全的突出问题，疆土安全也成为一个重大的科学问题。. 该项目以跨国界土地利用—土地安全评价—国土形态变化—防控机制构建为思路开展研究。首先运用3S技术和2005、2010、2015年三个时期遥感影像、DEM数据等，对中越跨国界的广西边境8个县市和越南边境18个县市土地利用类型、数量、结构的时空变化进行分析，揭示中越跨国界土地利用变化规律；运用FLUS模型，对广西边境地区土地利用进行空间优化布局模拟，得到2022年土地利用优化配置方案。其次运用改进的物元模型，对广西边境地区2000~2014年土地安全状况进行评价，研究表明广西边境地区土地安全等级呈现上升状况，区域变化明显。最后应用中越边境北仑河1966~2018年高精度的遥感影像、中越疆域划界历史档案、水文数据等，运用数理统计、淤积面延伸动态度等方法，对淤积变化、淤积因素、国土安全影响等进行研究，研究表明主航道自越南芒街向我国东兴一侧偏移，我国国土面积有逐渐减少，越南国土面积逐渐扩增的现象。对距离中越边境线0~3公里的18个村屯边民土地利用行为进行实地问卷调查并统计，研究表明边民国土安全和耕地保护认知不足，保护意愿不强；利用Logistic模型分析，揭示边民土地利用行为对国土安全的影响机理，提出我国疆土安全防控机制。. 本项目共发表论文14篇，其中核心论文4篇，其他论文10篇；组织国内会议3次，参加国际、国内学术会议并作报告5次；培养硕士研究生8人，指导本科生毕业论文27人，指导并获全国大学生土地国情调查大赛二等奖1项。积累了中越跨国界地区遥感影像、土地利用、社会经济、生态景观、边民土地利用等关键数据。该项目对开拓边疆土地利用研究新视角、推动疆土安全理论研究、维护边疆国土安全、促进边疆高质量发展和土地科学利用具有一定的科学意义。