集成陆面过程模式中LUCC动力学模型的发展及应用示范研究

The integrated simulation and interactive mechanism analysis of the coupled nature-human processes is one of the key scientific problems in the topic of land surface processes simulation. Existing Land Surface Models (LSM) are short of expression of the humanistic and nature-human processes, so there're large uncertainties of the simulation results of them. In light of this, the coming study will choose Land-Use and Land-Cover Change （LUCC） as the relation variable of the nature-human processes. Firstly, based on existing typical LUCC models and the framework of the integrated land surface model, a new LUCC dynamics model oriented to the integrated land surface model would be developed, and it would be coupled with the land surface model EASS. Then it will take the coastal regions of Eastern China as the typical research area, using the new integrated land surface model to take the spatiotemporal dynamic simulation and interactive analysis of land surface processes under the natural disturbance and human activities, such as processes of LUCC, evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux. At last, Partition of contribution in these processes for different nature and human typical factors would be discussed based on the integrated simulation and comprehensive analysis. As the most important step in the coupling of nature-human processes, as well as the development and application of the integrated land surface model, this study will provide a new research methodology as well as a basic tool for the integrated simulation and comprehensive analysis of the nature-human processes with the background of global change, and also provide scientific decision support to regional sustainable development.

如何耦合、集成自然-人文过程并开展其机理分析是陆面过程模拟研究中面临的关键科学问题之一。现有的陆面过程模型缺乏对人文过程和自然-人文耦合过程的表达，因而其模拟结果存在较大的不确定性。本项目拟选取土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）作为自然-人文耦合过程的关联变量，发展集成陆面过程模式中的LUCC动力学模型，并将其与陆面过程模型EASS耦合，然后选择我国东部沿海区域作为典型研究区，利用集成陆面过程模型开展自然扰动与人类活动影响下LUCC、陆面蒸散发和显热通量等陆面过程的动态时空模拟及作用机理分析，初步区分（Partition）自然和人文要素的特征变量分别对这些过程的贡献率（Contribution）。本项目作为耦合自然-人文过程的集成陆面过程模型发展与应用研究的重要组成部分，将为全球变化背景下自然-人文过程集成模拟及综合分析提供新的研究思路和重要方法，也将为区域可持续发展提供决策支持。

如何耦合、集成自然-人文过程并开展其机理分析是陆面过程模拟研究中面临的关键科学问题之一。现有的陆面过程模型缺乏对人文过程和自然-人文耦合过程的表达，因而其模拟结果存在较大的不确定性。基于此，本项目首先开展了集成陆面过程模型优化研究，显著提升了其对自然-人文综合因素下的集成模拟精度；然后针对集成陆面过程模型的输入数据获取难题，引进物联网技术，构建了面向生态过程模拟与环境管理的物联网平台，应用效果良好；此外，结合优化的集成陆面过程模型以及物联网平台，开展了典型陆面过程关键参数模拟与反演、基于陆面过程模拟的生态脆弱性评价等研究，为陆表典型物理过程模拟和生态评估提供了重要的方法和技术手段；最后，开展了气候变化与人类活动（LUCC）对区域水热交换过程的影响机理研究，初步区分了自然和人文要素分别对这些过程的贡献率。基于以上工作，发表学术论文12篇，其中SCI论文7篇（影响因子大于3.0的3篇），中文核心期刊论文5篇，获得授权专利1项。本项目将为全球变化背景下自然-人文过程集成模拟及综合分析提供新的研究思路和重要方法，也将为区域可持续发展提供决策支持。