基于金融关联超网络的银企风险传染及其控制研究

A remarkable characteristic of the modern economic and financial system is the high connectedness among economic agents, which brings forth economic benefits as well as important channel for risk contagion. Therefore, this project aims to investigate risk contagion and its regulation of banks and enterprises based on Supernetwork Theory, combined with theories from economics, behavioral finance, optimization decision theory and method, and the like. The main research contents include depicting behavior rules and decision mechanisms of economic agents, constructing the supernetwork model of financial connections; analyzing the risk contagion path through financial connections, constructing the risk contagion model of banks and enterprises based on the financial connection supernetwork; analyzing the risk contagion effect caused by single or multiple shocks; studying the impact of economic agents' behavior, cooperative network structures and financial regulatory policies on the risk contagion effect; through analyzing the risk contagion process, designing control strategies for risk contagion and investigating their effects. This project is innovative and would provide a new insight for research on risk contagion of banks and enterprises. Its research results would provide theoretical and practical values for the stabilization of Chinese financial system and the real economy.

现代经济金融系统显著的特征是经济主体间具有高度的关联性，其在带来诸多经济效益的同时也为风险传染提供了重要的媒介。针对此，本项目基于超网络理论，结合经济学、行为金融学、优化决策理论与方法等，研究银企风险传染及其控制。主要研究内容有：刻画经济主体的行为规则和决策机制，构建金融关联超网络模型；剖析风险基于金融关联渠道的传染路径，构建基于金融关联超网络的银企风险传染模型；分析单重或多重冲击下风险传染效应；研究经济主体行为、合作网络结构与金融监管政策等对风险传染效应的影响；通过对风险传染过程分析，设计风险传染控制策略并研究其效果。本项目将为银企风险传染研究提供新的视角，具有较强的创新性，其研究成果对维护我国金融体系与实体经济稳定具有现实的理论意义和良好的应用参考价值。

现代经济金融系统显著的特征是经济主体间具有高度的关联性，其在带来诸多经济效益的同时也为风险传染提供了重要的媒介。针对此，本项目以复杂系统与复杂性科学的思想为指导，基于多层网络理论，结合经济学、行为金融学、优化决策理论与方法等，对银企风险传染及其控制展开研究。首先，构建了金融机构多层网络模型和企业担保多层网络模型，实证分析了我国金融机构关联性与企业担保关系的多层网络结构特征。其次，基于单层网络视角研究了银行与企业部门间的风险反馈及其影响因素。然后，通过构建多层网络模型研究银行系统性风险，以及银企风险传染特征。最后，通过构建多层网络模型，研究了银行系统性风险优化控制，以及银企风险传染控制机制。本项目对银企风险传染进行了系统和深入的研究，其研究成果对我国金融风险的管理具有现实的理论意义和良好的应用价值。