基于漫顶溃决过程分析的滑坡堰塞坝稳定性评估模型研究

The study of stability assessment for landslide dam is the basis and the key of the study of risk assessment and outburst of landslide dam. At present, there are many indexs and methods on stability assessment for landslide dam, but the study of stability assessment for landslide dam is scarce based on the coupled analysis of controlling factors, dynamic process and the mechanism of outburst of landslide dam. This applied project analyze dominant factors and coupling relation by composition-structure and hydrology factors based on on the collected data and field investigations for typical barrier dams and statistical analysis of the causes. The evaluation index will be established based on the above analysis. This applied project will study anti erosion properties of barrier dam and outburst process of barrier dam by simulation experiment of overtopping outburst. The stability assessment model of landslide dam will be established based on the coupling of composition-structure and hydrology factors. Finally, Evaluation model will be verified by cases, and the error and reliability of model will be analyzed. The research work will promote studying of stability assessment for barrier dam. Meanwhile, the research work aslo provides scientific and technological support and services for emergency treatment, disaster prevention engineering, scientific and rational utilization of the landslide-dam lake, and has some theoretical and engineering applications.

堰塞坝稳定性评估研究是坝库危险性评价及相关研究的首要前提和基础。目前，堰塞坝稳定性评估指标与方法不少，多属于静态、宏观、浅表性的综合统计分析。其中，既缺少危险控制因素与溃决过程耦合的成因分析，又未涉及溃决过程中相关侵蚀机理与坝体失稳破坏的深入研究。因而，存在物理模型不完善，研究方法缺乏逻辑性的问题，故难以深入。本申请项目拟在前期调查的堰塞湖数据与成因统计分析的基础上，提出坝体组成结构与水文因素耦合的坝体稳定性评估指标；进而通过坝体漫顶溃决模拟实验，重现漫顶溃决水力冲刷过程与模式，揭示水土相互作用的水力侵蚀机理，从而建立基于坝体组成结构与水文要素耦合的漫顶溃决型滑坡堰塞坝稳定性评估模型。课题不仅有实例验证，还进行误差与可靠性分析。研究旨在堰塞坝稳定性评估研究方面取得突破性进展，更着力于堰塞坝应急排险、防灾工程及后期合理开发利用等方面提供技术支撑，有一定理论创新意义与工程应用价值。

堰塞坝稳定性评估研究是坝库危险性评价及相关研究的首要前提和基础。本项目基于堰塞坝野外调查案例与分析，研究了堰塞坝组成特征、结构特征、流域水文特征，建立了基于成因统计分析的堰塞坝稳定性评价指标体系; 基于堰塞坝稳定性判别指标体系，开展了112组堰塞坝溃决模拟试验，揭示了漫顶溃决水力冲刷过程与模式，从而建立了基于坝体组成结构与水文要素耦合的漫顶溃决型滑坡堰塞坝稳定性评估模型；最后，通过实例验证进行了模型误差与可靠性分析。通过该项目的实施，共发表相关论文11篇（第一标注7篇，第二标注4篇），其中SCI论文8篇，中文核心3篇，出版论著1部，授权计算机软件著作权1件，荣获2018年四川省科技进步一等奖1项（个人排名第5，已公示）。本项目研究在堰塞坝稳定性评估研究方面取得了一些进展，也为将来的堰塞坝应急排险、防灾工程及后期合理开发利用等方面提供了技术支撑。