大城市郊区保障房社区的居民时空行为与生活圈模拟研究——以上海市为例

There are outstanding problems about life circle construction and supply-demand issues of urban facilities in suburban affordable housing communities in large Chinese cities. These issues indicate that there is a big mismatch between built environment at community level and the space-time behavior of residents. To enhance life circle construction and improve quality of life of residents in affordable housing communities, research on space-time behavior and its mechanism should be carried out to understand residents' daily life. However, existing research on behavioral mechanism is not sufficient, especially there is a gap in studying the impact of subjective factors on individual behavior. And behavioral mechanism and behavior simulation studies are needed. Taking Shanghai as an example, this project follows time geographic method to individual space-time behavior analysis, and focuses on behavioral pattern, influential mechanism and scenario simulation in suburban affordable housing communities. First, based on the activity diary data collected in several affordable housing communities in suburban Shanghai, behavior pattern of residents will be studied by combining spatial analysis and descriptive analysis. Especially the spatial-temporal relationship between individual behavior and urban facilities are examined. Second, by combining both objective and subjective factors, the behavior mechanism will be studied using econometric models like logit model and SEM models. Particularly, a quantitative framework are constructed to understand the interaction among built environment, subjective factors, and individual behavior. Finally, scenario simulations will be used to simulate and predicate the trend of individual space-time behavior and ideal life circles under different scenarios. The outcomes will help to understand the pattern and tendency of suburban affordable housing development in large cities, and provide valuable evidence on urban planning and policy.

大城市保障房社区生活圈建设与设施供需问题突出，集中体现了社区环境与居民时空行为之间的不匹配关系。提升保障房社区生活圈水平与居民生活质量，需要从时空行为角度深入分析居民日常生活需求及其影响机制。但是现有研究对行为机制分析尚不充分，特别是行为主观因素分析不足、行为机制与行为模拟预测研究需要进一步深化。以上海市为案例，本项目将从郊区保障房社区居民时空行为出发，利用居民活动日志数据，结合空间分析与计量模型方法，刻画保障房社区居民的时空行为特征，分析居民行为与社区公共设施的时空匹配关系，揭示保障房社区现状社区生活圈格局；着重强调主观与客观因素交互作用下的行为机制建模，构建社区建成环境、主观因素与居民时空行为模式之间的关系框架，分析居民时空行为的影响机制；并对居民时空行为进行情景模拟，分析不同情境下的社区生活圈形态，从时空行为视角对郊区保障房社区生活圈的空间优化提供政策建议。

大城市郊区化过程中社区生活空间问题受到了城市地理学与城市社会学的广泛关注。如何通过社区生活圈的营造提升郊区居民生活质量成为中国大城市所面临的现实问题，需要从时空行为角度深入分析居民日常生活需求及其影响机制。本研究围绕如何基于时空行为开展社区生活圈研究这个关键科学问题，聚焦城市郊区大型居住区这一研究对象，采取问卷调查与地理空间数据相结合的方法收集数据，建立上海市郊区居民日常活动与出行数据库，开展理论与实证研究。在理论层面，梳理了生活方式与时空行为的关系，提出了基于时空行为的生活方式理论框架，探究大城市郊区社区生活方式的行为逻辑，即郊区居民如何形成与郊区空间的互动。在实证研究方面，首先聚焦居民日常活动特征，分析了社区环境、社会经济属性和网络使用等对于居民日常行为模式的影响，丰富了对郊区居民日常生活的理解；其次，聚焦居民社区活动建模拟合，构建了社区建成环境、社会环境与居民时空行为模式之间的关系框架，通过模型模拟方法分析社区环境对居民社区非工作活动和共享活动空间的效应。研究丰富了社会地理学的研究内涵，推进了行为论方法在社区研究中的应用，探讨了居民对于社区生活圈的依赖模式，为从以人为本的角度实现郊区社区生活圈构建提供了研究依据。