基于数据流挖掘的径流对环境变化的动态响应研究

In recent years, the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff have become more significant, and the evolving pattern and response mechanism of runoff in the context of changing environment have attracted increasing attentions in the water science community. In this project, taking Fuxi River watershed as the research area, we view the data of climatic factors, human activities and runoff as a data stream, aiming at investigating their dynamic-coupling relationships and exploring the runoff evolving patterns. Specifically, based on the techniques of feature selection and sliding windows, we first analyze the dynamic correlations among runoff and individual impact factors at different time scales, to identify the dynamic driving factors for runoff change. Building upon these selected factors, we extend the concept drift detection algorithms to adaptively study and capture the evolving patterns of runoff with the changes of climate and human activities. Finally, we design the data stream regression algorithm to simulate the dynamic responses of runoff to the changes of climate and human activities. The research achievements will not only provide a new promising way for runoff simulation and prediction in the changing environment and supplement the basic theories and methodologies of hydrology, but also provide new scientific evidences and technologies to help hydraulic engineering design and adaptive management of water resources in river basins.

气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响日趋明显。研究变化环境下径流的演变规律及响应机理已成为当前水科学研究的前沿科学问题。本项目拟以四川省釜溪河流域为研究对象，将气候、人类活动和径流等数据视作数据流，基于数据流挖掘理论和方法，深入研究气候变化和人类活动与径流的动态耦合关系及径流随之演化的模式。首先，利用特征筛选和滑动窗口技术，分析径流与各驱动因子在不同时间尺度下的动态耦合关系，识别径流变化的动态驱动因子群；在此基础上，改进概念漂移检测算法，刻画并实时捕捉气候变化和人类活动与径流耦合关系的演化模式；最后，设计数据流回归算法，模拟径流对气候变化和人类活动的动态响应。研究成果将为变化环境下径流模拟和预测提供新思路，丰富水文学科的基础理论与方法；同时，也将为水利工程设计、流域水资源适应性管理和规划提供科学依据和决策支持。

该项目从数据流挖掘的新视角出发，研究变化环境下流域径流对气候及人类活动变化的动态响应模拟。通过三年的研究，已取得了系列研究成果。主要成果包括（1）研究提出了分析径流与驱动因子之间动态关联关系的特征筛选方法；（2）研究提出了刻画和检测径流与驱动因子关系演化模式的概念漂移检测算法；（3）研究提出了动态模拟径流对环境变化响应的数据流回归算法。项目严格按照制定的计划进行，未对研究内容和研究计划进行调整。基于项目研究成果发表学术论文15篇；申请国家发明专利3项；指导完成硕士学位论文3篇。项目超额完成了研究任务。