投资决策过程中群体行为协同进化的研究

In the environment of investment as a key drive for high speed economy development of our country, the behavior manner of individuals in the process of investment decision-makings is very important for their incomes and financial market. The irrational behavior of individuals in the the process of investment decision-makings makes the evolvement of investment swarm behaviors complex. Therefore, based on stock market of our country, taking the discrete stochastic potential model of swarm behavior dynamics in the process of investment decision-makings as an object of research, this project aims at obtaining a coordinated evolution algorithm for swarm behaviors adapting the economy development of our country. By using complex system theory and behavioral finance theory, in the process of stock market investment decision-makings, we shall investigate the characters and regularities of special irrational behavior veriables of our individuals, such as fickleness and anxiety. We shall consider the swarm behaviors and their coordinated evolution in view of the interaction law between individuals and environments, and discuss how to bring the swarm behavior into normality by regulating market environment laws and restricting irrational behavior decision-makings of investment. The project results will be significant not only theoretically for exploring the irrational behavior restriction for fickleness and anxiety of our individuals, but also practically for opening out these irrational behaviors and decision-making regularities of individuals in our stock market.

在我国经济高速发展、投资已经成为经济发展重要引擎的大环境下，投资个体在决策过程中的行为方式对投资收益和金融市场至关重要。投资个体的非理性行为在决策过程中使得群体行为的演化既微妙又复杂。以我国股票市场为背景，以决策过程中投资群体的离散随机动力学态势模型为研究对象，以获得与我国经济发展相适应的群体行为协同进化算法为研究目标，本项目采用复杂系统理论和行为金融学方法，在股票市场投资决策过程中，研究我国投资群体特有的浮躁和焦虑等非理性行为变量的特征和规律；研究通过态势模型的投资个体之间、个体与环境之间由交互规则而产生的群体行为及其协同进化趋势；研究通过改变市场环境规则和非理性行为决策约束，将投资决策群体行为纳入常态。项目研究意义在于理论上探索投资决策群体浮躁和焦虑等非理性行为的涌现和抑制；实践上可揭示我国股票市场中投资个体的这些非理性行为和决策规律。

以我国股票市场为背景，以决策过程中投资群体的离散随机动力学态势模型为研究对象，以获得与我国经济发展相适应的群体行为协同进化算法为研究目标，本项目采用复杂系统理论和行为金融学方法，在股票市场投资决策过程中，研究了我国投资群体特有的非理性行为变量的特征和规律；研究了结构方程模型中引入包含投资者情绪指标和财务指标等完整的指标体系对股票收益的影响，揭示投资者情绪在投资决策中所起的作用；研究了投资者情绪对股票价格偏离度的影响，发现投资者情绪变动导致股票市场的价格无法真正反映股票市场的价值，使得投资者情绪的合理引导变得尤为重要；创建了考虑投资者情绪的广义熵投资决策模型，并进行实证分析；构建了一个描述异质交易者群体之间交互作用的模型，这种交互作用通过引入能很好地表示异质生物群体之间的复杂交互作用的Lotka-Volterra方程来表示；提出了一个拓扑通信模型来模拟人群中的集群行为，在不同初始条件下，模型中涌现出多种不同类型网络的特征，可以用来去研究如何促进有益的群体行为和抑制阻止有害行为的涌现。研究了通过态势模型的投资个体之间、个体与环境之间由交互规则而产生的群体行为及其协同进化趋势；研究了通过改变市场环境规则和非理性行为决策约束，将投资决策群体行为纳入常态。