面向可用性的制造系统故障演化多尺度建模与维修策略研究

Along with social progress and development of science and technology, the requirement for the performance of manufacturing system is higher and higher, and the structures of manufacturing system are more complicated. As a result the probability of system failures will be increased significantly under complex working conditions and circumstances, and therefore how to ensure the availability of manufacturing systems has become the most urgent problem for the equipment manufacturing industry in China. In the project with the assurance of availability as the research object, the characteristic analysis of operational environment as the starting point, and multi-scale modeling of failure evolution as center, the failure formation mechanisms in different levels of manufacturing system were analyzed by dynamic simulation, reliability was characterized and the parameter models were established firstly. Secondly, the performance characteristics and failure symptoms were studied by experiments, and the mapping relationships between operational environment and failures were analyzed, then the reliability comprehensive evaluation model of manufacturing system was built. Considering reliability and cost as constraint condition, the proactive maintenance model and optimization algorithm were established based on multi-scale failure information. Finally, the strategy method of availability centered proactive maintenance for machining manufacturing system was formed to provide theoretical and enabling technical support for improving availability in China.

随着社会进步和科技发展，用户对制造系统性能的要求越来越高，其结构也更为复杂，再加上复杂多变的运行工况与运行环境，使其发生故障的几率也会明显增加，因此如何保证制造系统的可用性已成为我国装备制造业亟待解决的首要问题。本项目以制造系统可用性的保障为目标，以制造系统运行环境特征解析为切入点，以故障演化的多尺度建模为核心，通过动力学仿真对不同尺度上故障形成机理进行分析，对可靠性进行表征并构建其参数模型；在此基础上采用试验手段对性能特征和故障征兆的演化规律进行研究，验证运行环境与故障之间的映射关系，构建制造系统可靠性综合评估模型；然后以可靠性、经济性为约束条件，基于多尺度故障信息建立制造系统主动维修模型与优化算法，最终面向机械加工制造系统形成一套以可用性为中心的主动维修决策方法，为提高我国制造系统的可用性提供理论和使能技术支撑。

针对机械加工制造系统层次结构复杂、故障源多、制造任务多变、状态多变等特点，以及运行过程中的高可用性保障需求，本项目采用仿真分析与可靠性试验验证相结合的方法，从制造系统零部件级、功能模块级、制造单元级、制造系统级4个尺度研究了制造系统运行环境特征解析、故障演化与可靠性建模、制造系统主动维修策略3部分内容。.（1）首先，根据“人—机—环境”系统工程学理论，对制造系统实际运行工况中的加工过程环境、人员因素环境、自然社会环境3类广义制造环境进行了系统分析，采用基于任务的制造系统运行环境描述方式，建立起了制造系统18个关键动态运行环境因素之间的耦合机制及其与制造系统性能状态退化的映射规律，在此基础上给出改进UGF法对制造系统进行可靠性评估，评估结果更加真实、准确。.（2）进一步，聚焦制造系统的微观尺度，对典型零部件级元动作单元的运行过程和耗损过程进行了动力学分析，并根据制造系统多尺度的脆性累积效应，提出一种基于小世界网络的制造系统故障传播模型，通过单台设备物理传播和制造过程流程传播的分析，再现了制造系统典型故障从微观尺度到宏观尺度的传播过程，给出了多故障模式下的制造系统故障传播强度序列，为制造系统的故障预测提供决策支持。.（3）最后，紧扣国家“双碳”战略，面向制造系统运行过程中的高可用性与低能耗，基于制造系统各设备单元的多尺度故障信息，在给定动态维修决策阈值、有限缓冲区容量以及维修成本资源等约束条件下，分别以服役阶段效益产出与有效能效最大化为目标，提出了制造系统主动维修策略及其优化算法。通过仿真分析与实践应用，验证了该维修策略相比传统维修策略的优势。同时，为合作企业搭建了可靠性保障体系，相关成果也应用到了智能农机装备的运行过程中，效果良好。.本项目提出的理论方法体系从微观和宏观两个方面对机械加工制造系统的运行可靠性与维修策略进行了系统分析，以期为我国制造装备可用性水平的提升提供使能技术支撑。