论文零被引的时间演化规律、影响因素及其应用研究

"Rejected approval" is a universal phenomenon in human society, and one of its expressions in academic field is "non-citation" to papers published by scientists. In the past, "high-citation" was often focused on by scientometricians, while "non-citation" phenomenon was ignored. This project takes "non-citation" phenomenon as research object, and plans to carry out the following several tasks: ① We will build the theoretical framework for the study of "non-citation" by analyzing the knowledge basis and the multiple causes ( such as sociological, disciplinary and topical causes) for this phenomenon, fitting theoretical models, and identifying research hotspots in this field. ② We will conduct an empirical analysis on the regularity in the time-dependent distribution of the percentage of uncited articles published by various "units": countries with different languages, universities with different academic strength, disciplines with different orientation, journals with different impact factors, and individuals with different prestige. Hopefully, we will be able to identify the respective regularity in the time-dependent distribution for all those units, trace the causes for the gaps in time-dependent distribution among the same category of units, and make recommendations as to how to narrow such gaps. ③ We will explore the relationships between "non-citation" indicators and some common indicators for research evaluation, and promote the possible use of "non-citation" indicators; ④ We will try to identify the key influencing factors that would turn a "non-citation" document into a highly-cited document, and wake up the "sleeping beauties" literature . One of the potential applications of our study is that we may be able to identify the "hidden treasures" among the current uncited literature and actively recommend them to readers.

"零认可"是社会各领域中普遍存在的一种现象，论文"零被引"是零认可在学术领域的一种表现。过去，大家普遍关注"高被引"，而忽略了"零被引"。本项目以科学论文"零被引"现象为研究对象,进行以下几项研究：① 深入分析和研究零被引的知识基础、产生原因（诸如社会学和学科选题原因）、理论模型和研究热点等,构建零被引研究的理论框架；② 统计分析不同语言国家、不同实力高校、不同性质学科、不同影响力期刊和不同知名度个人等单元零被引文献比例随时间的变化规律,以探索不同单元文献零被引率各自的时间演化规律及相互差异，并分析造成这些差异的原因和提出应对之策;③ 探索和验证零被引率与科研评价类指标之间的相互关系，推动零被引率在科研评价领域中的试验性应用; ④ 通过研究"睡美人"和"高被引"文献从零被引到高被引的过程，努力识别实现被引"零突破"的关键影响因素，从而从现有零被引文献中识别出潜在的"精品"文献，向读者推荐。

本项目以“零被引”现象作为研究对象,研究：①零被引的知识基础、研究现状、研究不足和研究热点等,构建零被引研究的理论框架；②从调查问卷统计、面板数据模型、评价指标计量等角度分析零被引现象的影响因素和影响程度;③分析不同语言、不同国家、不同学科、不同期刊等零被引率随时间的演化规律④探索零被引指标在期刊、学科和高校评价中的应用;⑤挖掘“零被引”、“睡美人”、“高被引”、“王子”文献的特征，并从“零被引”文献中遴选潜在的“精品”文献，通过各种渠道向同行学者推荐。.研究发现：①零被引的分析有必要清楚界定数据范围、恰当处理自引、完善数据模型等；②论文内容主题、期刊学术地位、主动向同行推荐的行为等对论文零被引有重要影响。③不同性质学科期刊论文在出版后当年至20年不同引用时间窗口中的论文零被引率表现出不同的演变规律或模式，主要有：凹形或偏凹形曲线、凸形或偏凸形曲线、斜直线或偏斜直线，等。④零被引率在一定程度上可以作为评价期刊、学科和高校实力与影响力的一个补充指标。⑤“睡美人”有一些重要特征，一是多出自跨学科研究和综合性期刊，二是多具有潜在的技术与应用属性，三是诺奖得主的高质量论文多表现出被引延迟的特征。“王子”文献对睡美人文献有重要唤醒作用，主要有：理论到实践的转化式唤醒、新型技术规避安全风险后被唤醒、技术驱动重大科学发现/理论的唤醒等。.建议：①发表论文时首先关注论文的选题、质量和内容，其次要把论文尽量发表在口碑好、影响因子高和被著名数据库收录的期刊上，然后要通过社交媒体主动向同行推荐；②国内期刊应注重加快审稿速度，缩短出版周期，提高论文的传播与利用水平。③将零被引可作为反向评价指标，但具体操作时要慎重。④“零被引”文献中可能存在“睡美人”之类潜在的“精品”文献等。.科学界不仅要关注“睡美人”的早期识别与唤醒，更要多培养“王子型”作者。