城市应对气候变化背景下的脆弱性机制分析及其时空评价—以河口城市上海为例

Urban has been the focal area for most of countries in response to global cclmate change. Meanwhile,there was few scientific research about climate change on urban scale supporting the relative planning and decision making. This study focused on the issue of climate change vulnerability in estuary city which is both vulnerable ecosystem and also urbanized area with high population and economic density, considering the requirements of climate change scientific study and the practice of urban responses to climate change. The study addressed the relative theories and methodologies of climate change vulnerability on urban scale, including conceptual model of climate change vulnerability and framework of comprehensive evaluation index system. Based on the theoretical framework, the estuarine city of Shanghai, as a case study, was studied through the aspect of mechanisms analysis of local climate change and its drive factors, urbanization stress on local climate change, and the impact of climate change and urbanization on urban ecosystem, using the methodologies of climate statistical analysis, principal component analysis, peri-urban comparison, and AVIM2 ecological process model. The spatial-temporal assessment of vulnerability in Shanghai was also addressed in this study, with the methodologies and technologies of composite index method, analytic hierarchy process analysis, GIS spatial technologies, based on the index system, which indicated the essential problem and area for shanghai climate change vulnerability. Thus, this study is so meaningful, not only for improving and expanding the theories and methodologies of climate change vulnerability on urban scale, but also for guiding the urban relative planning and strategies in response to climate change with scientific knowledge.

城市已经成为各国应对全球气候变化的重要载体，但在制定应对气候变化的规划策略时，仍缺少基于气候变化问题综合分析和评价的科学基础。本课题综合考虑气候变化脆弱性评价的前沿科学问题和城市应对气候变化的实践焦点需求，以脆弱性评价为切入点，以人类活动最为密集，自然要素最为敏感的区域-河口城市为对象，构建城市气候变化脆弱性概念模型和综合评价指标体系；在此基础上以典型河口城市上海为例，综合采用气候统计分析、城郊对比、主成分分析、影响矩阵法、AVIM2生态过程模型等方法，重点研究城市局地气候变化和驱动机制、城市化进程对局地气候变化的胁迫机制以及城市化和气候变化对城市复合生态系统的影响机制；运用综合指数、AHP层次分析以及GIS空间分析技术，开展上海气候变化脆弱性时空评价，辨识影响脆弱性的关键问题和关键区域。项目有助于深化城市尺度气候变化脆弱性的理论研究，并为上海制定应对气候变化相关规划策略提供基础科学支撑。

本课题综合考虑气候变化脆弱性评价的前沿科学问题和城市应对气候变化的实践焦点需求，以脆弱性评价为切入点，以人类活动最为密集，自然要素最为敏感的区域—河口城市上海为对象，构建城市气候变化脆弱性概念模型和综合评价指标体系；在此基础上分析脆弱性机制，开展上海气候变化脆弱性时空评价，辨识影响脆弱性的关键问题和关键区域。课题主要研究内容包括6个方面：.1）基于2004-2013年期间我国低碳城市领域期刊文献，从低碳经济、城市规划与碳源及碳汇等不同视角对低碳城市研究展开分析和论述；此外，选取纽约、伦敦、旧金山，开展应对气候变化典型案例研究。.2）构建城市化区域气候变化脆弱性评价概念模型。其中，评价的组成要素包括风险度、敏感度和适应度；胁迫输入要素包括气候变化胁迫和城市化胁迫；策略输出要素包括减缓和适应两个方面。在此基础上，构建城市化区域气候变化脆弱度指数指标体系。.3）以典型河口城市上海为例，综合采用气候统计分析、城郊对比、主成分分析、AVIM2生态过程模型等方法，重点研究城市局地气候变化和驱动机制、城市化进程对局地气候变化的胁迫机制以及城市化和气候变化对城市复合生态系统的影响机制。.4）开展上海气候变化脆弱性时空动态评价，从时间序列的变化来看，1998-2006年期间，上海UCCVI指数呈现出波动变化的特征，变化幅度较少，总体有减小的趋势。从空间分异来看，上海气候变化高脆弱区和较高脆弱区面积分别占上海市总面积的6.38%和30.53%。.5）开展宁夏沙坡头国家自然保护区生物多样性脆弱性评价，拓展了气候变化脆弱性评价模型在荒漠生态系统的应用.6）以C#为开发语言，SqlServer2008为数据库管理工具，结合.NET框架基础，以ArcEngine10.0为GIS开发平台进行系统设计，完成气候变化脆弱性评价信息系统的开发。