农地流转中农地转出户生计演变及其驱动分层城镇化机制：度量、模拟与政策设计

The farmland circulation is encouraged again in Central NO.1 Document. However, it is difficult for the farmland rental households to seek the sustainable livelihoods and improve their living in farmland circulation. Compared with other peasant households, the farmland rental households who rent out farmland and may have non-agricultural employment opportunities can change survival state by urbanization. Firstly, the farmland rental households in Guizhou, Zhejiang and Shandong are selected in this study, and key livelihood assets and livelihood activities are identified based on sustainable livelihoods framework and literature review. Then livelihood evolution of farmland rental households is measured based on structural equation modeling. Secondly, the peasant households' choices of stratified urbanization are distinguished based on urbanization ability and urbanization will. Then the mechanism of stratified urbanization driven by livelihood evolution which consists of driving path, driving intensity and driving assistance is analyzed by multiple regression models. Thirdly, in order to establish the simulation model, agents' behavior is quantified and the parameter sets of farmland circulation features, non-agricultural livelihood features, and livelihood policies are confirmed. Then the stratified urbanization driven by livelihood evolution is simulated by multi-agent technique. Lastly, according to the results of livelihood evolution measurement, driving mechanism analysis and dynamic simulation, the farmland circulation strategy and assistant system are designed to help farmland rental households obtaining sustainable livelihoods based on the “formal institution-governance structure-farmland circulation” analysis framework. The purpose of this study is to provide scientific basis for building up alternative livelihoods of farmland rental households and urbanizing the population in typical area.

2014年中央一号文件再次鼓励农户流转土地，只是农地转出户寻找到长久谋生之计并不容易。相比其他农户，转出农地同时又有可能获得非农就业机会的农地转出户，存在着一条城镇化路径以辅助其生存转型。本研究以黔浙鲁3省农地转出户为对象，基于可持续生计框架与文献综述，识别农户关键生计资本与生计活动；运用结构方程模型，度量农地流转作用下的农户生计演变。区分基于城镇化能力与城镇化意愿匹配的农户分层城镇化选择，运用多元回归模型，探究生计演变驱动农户分层城镇化机制，分析其驱动路径、驱动强度、驱动助力。选择多智能体技术，量化智能体行为，确定农地流转特征、非农生计活动特征、生计政策等参数，模拟生计演变驱动农户分层城镇化。最终基于生计演变度量、驱动机制分析与动态模拟，依赖“正式制度-治理结构-农地流转”框架，设计可持续生计下的农地流转策略与辅助制度。以期为典型地区农地转出户生计替代及其人的城镇化提供科学依据。

农地流转中农地转出户生计演变对于农户通过城镇化实现生计转型至关重要。但是农地流转-农户生计-城镇化之间的关系却不容易识别。因此本研究基于黔浙鲁3省的农户调查和其他实证区的数据，运用主成份分析、K-均值聚类法分析和模糊综合评价模型，分析了农地流转中农地转出户生计演变风险、生计策略选择以及省域间农户可持续生计风险水平。研究发现：农地转出户的生计选择与风险总是与当地的社会经济特征和农户自身的特征有着密切的关系。运用BP神经网络、结构方程模型和耦合协调度模型，模拟农地转出户劳动力转移的城镇化驱动，基于生计特征为中间变量的农地流转对农地转出户城镇化意愿的影响，以及城镇化内部构成之间的耦合度。研究发现：农地流转通过提高农户人力资本增加农户城镇化意愿，而通过影响金融资本、物质资本和社会资本降低城镇化意愿。同时农户的城镇化实现受到社会公共服务（由社会城镇化提供）的制约，并直接影响农户非农就业的状态。最后运用多元回归分析、灰色关联、VAR模型、空间计量模型等，分析了基于农户农地流转行为逻辑的农地制度改革方向以及低环境风险的农地利用引导政策。该研究有助于寻找到适用于典型地区的农地转出户可持续生计策略，有助于设计满足人的生计需要和低环境影响的农地政策，有助于观察转型期对土地利用的影响。