突发事件下密集人群失稳事故机制及疏散管控策略研究

Dense crowd control is an important problem in the field of public safety especially in emergency management. In view of the crowd instability accidents in emergency situations, this project integrates the research means of on-site investigation, controlled experiment, theoretical analysis and simulation together to study the behavioral regulating mechanism and the emotional contagion mode of dense crowd under the influence of various factors such as the external crisis environment, the surrounding crowd pressure and the evacuation guidance during the evacuation process. A dynamic critical criterion of dense crowd instability accident will be proposed through coupling various factors related to the crowd behavior and emotion, as well as the fluctuation characteristics of local density field and pressure field, on the basis of which the physical mechanism of crowd instability will be revealed. Based on the social force model, a birth-death model of evacuation bottleneck in dense crowd will be established, and the feedback mechanism of the real-time birth-death information of multisource bottlenecks on the behaviors of crowd with multi-scale will be investigated, and subsequently a prediction model of short-term dynamic instability risk will also be established. On the basis of the above research, the project will develop dense crowd control strategies which comprehensively consider the overall optimization of crowd instability risk and the local regulation of crowd bottlenecks, as well as reveal the control mechanisms. This project can provide theoretical basis and scientific support for the safety management of dense crowd emergency evacuation.

密集人群管控是公共安全尤其是应急管理领域的重要问题。本项目针对密集人群在突发事件情境下的失稳事故，通过现场观测、实验研究、理论分析和仿真模拟等手段，研究揭示密集人群在疏散过程中受外部危险环境、周围人群压力、疏散管控引导等多因素影响下的行为调节机制和情绪感染模式；构建耦合人群行为、情绪因子并考虑局部密度场、压力场震荡特征的密集人群失稳动力学临界判据，揭示人群失稳的物理机制；在社会力模型基础上建立密集人群疏散瓶颈生灭模型，并研究多源疏散瓶颈实时生灭信息对人群不同尺度运动主体的行为反馈机制，构建人群失稳风险的短时动态预测模型；在上述研究的基础上，发展全局疏散风险优化和局部瓶颈调控两个层面相结合的密集人群管控策略，揭示其管控机理。为密集人群应急疏散安全管理提供理论基础和科学依据。

密集人群管控是公共安全尤其是应急管理领域的重要问题。本项目采用现场观测、实验研究、理论分析和仿真模拟等手段，针对密集人群在突发事件情境下的失稳事故机制及管控策略开展一系列研究。一方面，关注与密集人群失稳事故密切关联的疏散冲突行为与调节行为，研究了高人流量情况下行人流交叉穿行角度对疏散效率的影响，揭示交叉角度与行人间相互作用和冲突频率的对应关系；以火灾事故为背景，揭示人群在疏散过程中受火灾热辐射影响的行为调节差异性及其统计学规律；基于多因素实验方法，研究揭示在加快速度和存在障碍物的不同工况下，社会关系对地震时垂直疏散过程中人群平均速度、步进频率、横向振幅的影响；构建毒气泄漏事故背景下的人群恐慌扩散系统动力学模型，分析并量化了灾害程度、能见度、小群体数量以及心理因素对疏散的影响规律。另一方面，在震荡失稳事故机理及瓶颈拥堵风险防控方面，提出了人群震荡的定义，发现扰动和过高的期望速度是产生人群震荡现象的主要原因，揭示了典型区域内人群震荡波振幅、周期及波传播速度的变化规律；提出一种综合考虑人群密度、速度以及流量的基于数据驱动技术的疏散瓶颈处人群拥堵风险量化模型；综合考虑人群疏散心理行为特征，构建人群疏散安全概率的贝叶斯模型，实现了突发灾害下人群疏散成功概率的不确定性表达。此外，围绕人群管控策略，研究揭示了出口缓冲区对疏散时间、出口密度分布及速度分布的影响规律，并在亚洲第一大站新街口地铁站开展了缓冲区优化效果研究，分析了地铁站疏散瓶颈演变规律，提出将疏散效率与瓶颈口拥堵风险相结合的疏散规划策略；研究建筑角落出口设计及其出口障碍物对于密集人群疏散的影响，通过设计并优化障碍物布局，最大限度提高人群逃生效率；研究了瓶颈处凸面出口缓解行人拥堵的深层机理，解析了凸面出口各个尺寸参数对行人疏散时间的影响，并提出凸面出口的优化设计方案。本项目研究成果可为密集人群应急疏散管控提供理论基础和科学依据。