区域黄河水权转让可持续发展的判别原理和方法

Study on water right transfer at home and abroad was only limited to the principles, cost, time limit, the roles of the government and water right department, security system of the national rights and interests.At present there is little research on the development problem of the implemented water right transfer.Regional evaporation and transpiration is regional water consumption.And water right transfer is not the direct water intake transfer but the savee water consumption transfer from the allocated evaporation and transpiration.So combining theory study with modle calculation and taking the characteristic variables water right transfer as objects, influence factors and machine on the sustainable development of regional Yellow River water right transfer will be analyzed in this project. Then the method for sustainable development judgment on regional Yellow River water right transfer will be established. The definition of regional evaporation and transpiration, the classified index system and method system will be put forward. Finally the typical examples of Yellow River water right transfer will be chosen to verify the established calculation method. And the rationality and application prospect of the method for sustainable development judgment on regional Yellow River water right transfer will be proved. The results can deepen the understanding of water right transfer sand have the important academic significance and practical value to enrich and development of water right and water market theory in our country.

国内外对水权转让的研究仅限于水权转让的原则、费用、期限、政府及水权部门的角色和国家权益的保障体系等，目前还缺少已经实施的水权转让的发展问题研究。区域蒸散发量（ET）是区域的耗水量，水权转让不是直接对取用的水资源量进行转让，而是从分配的ET量节约下来的耗水量的转让。基于此，本项目采用理论研究和模型计算相结合的手段，以水权转让的特征变量为对象，分析影响黄河水权转让可持续发展的最根本的影响因素和影响机制；建立基于区域ET的黄河水权转让的可持续发展的判别方法，系统提出区域ET的定义、分项指标体系、计算区域ET的方法体系；选择黄河水权转让的典型实例问题，对建立的计算方法进行检验，论证区域黄河水权转让可持续发展判别方法的合理性和应用前景。研究成果对于深化对水权转让的认识，丰富和发展我国水权水市场理论具有重要的学术意义和实用价值。

本研究以黄河一期水权转让为研究对象，采用理论研究、模型模拟和多源遥感反演融合等方法，开展了黄河水权转让可持续发展的判别工作。具体成果有：（1）分析了黄河水权转让的特征变量。采用云模型对黄河水权转让可持续发展的影响因素进行了筛选，得到了黄河水权转让可持续发展影响因素为耗水节水量和可转让水量。（2）在分析耗水节水是真实资源性节水的基础上，提出了黄河水权转让可持续发展的判别方法，即当耗水节水量大于可转让水量，则认为该水权转让起到了真实的节水效果，从资源节约的角度看是可持续的；反之，则认为该水权转让没有起到真实的节水效果，从资源节约的角度看是不可持续的。（3）构建了区域耗水节水量计算的MIKESHE模型，同时基于MODIS、GLDAS等多源遥感数据来源和ENVI/IDL平台，建立开发了可实现潜在蒸散发和实际蒸散发模块化、批量化计算的模型平台，可对比验证基于MIKESHE模型的区域耗水量计算结果。（4）构建了黄河南岸自流灌区水循环模型数据库，依据建立的水循环模型结合构建的数据库，率定和验证了南岸灌区水循环待定参数，同时将模拟结果与基于土壤水分胁迫系数的遥感实际蒸散发模拟结果进行了对比分析。结果表明，率定的参数可对南岸灌区水循环进行较好地模拟。最后，由构建的可持续发展判别模型和水循环模型对黄河南岸灌区一期水权转让进行了应用分析，结果表明，一期水权转让节约耗水量201.31万m3，远小于转让水量1.3亿m3，从耗水节水角度来看是不可持续的。这些成果，丰富了水权水市场研究理论，可为区域水资源综合管理提供科学依据。