面向场外核应急响应的集成化决策空间研究

The resources and knowledge of the domain systems, such as nuclear power system, medical and health system, fire protection system, and so on, should be integrated to support the offsite nuclear response decisions process. The complexity of the decision-making, the heterogeneity between the domain systems, and the disorder of the system structure cause the difficulties of the process of cross-domain integration. To resolve these problems synthetically: (1) The “Physical Space-IDS (Integrated Decision-making Spaces) mapping” assumptions are proposed based on the Space Mapping theory. And the original space features, such as the structures, evolution mechanisms, and so on of the nuclear power emergencies, response task, domain resources, are recognized and obtained to construct the Original Space Feature Model, and to develop the Space Mapping relationship model and the Multi-dimensional Space Modeling approach. (2) According to the possible heterogeneity of the semantic and pragmatic levels in the IDS, the Cross-domain Interoperation mechanism is researched based on the technologies of the semantic web and the Petri net. (3) According to the structure disorder of the IDS, the reasoning mechanism for Cross-domain ordering decision is researched based on the knowledge discovery methods of system reconstruction, genetic algorithm, semantic reasoning, and so on. (4) The evaluation system of the integration and decision efficiency is designed. And the IDS experiment system is developed. With the typical case of the nuclear emergence drilling, the validity of the approaches proposed in this research is verified.

场外核应急响应需要集成核电、医疗、消防等领域应急资源来协同决策。为解决集成化决策过程中存在的核应急决策复杂性、领域系统异构性和无序性问题，首先基于空间映射理论，提出“物理-集成化决策空间（IDS）映射”假设，识别和提取核电事件链-响应任务-领域资源要素的结构、作用机理等源空间特征，开发物理-IDS空间映射关系模型和多维IDS空间建模方法，通过快速、规范的多维空间映射建模将源空间集成化决策问题迁移到IDS空间描述；其次，针对IDS领域要素间的语义和语用异构性，基于语义网、Petri网等技术发现其异构性冲突，研究跨领域的互操作机制；再次，针对IDS空间结构无序性，基于系统重构、遗传算法、语义推理等知识发现方法，研究有序化核应急决策推理机制；最后，设计集成与决策效率的评价体系，开发应用推理实验，基于典型场外核应急演练案例验证方法的有效性。

场外核应急响应需要集成核电、医疗、消防等领域应急资源来协同决策。为解决集成化决策过程中存在的核应急决策复杂性、领域系统异构性和无序性问题，首先基于空间映射理论，提出“物理-集成化决策空间（IDS）映射”假设，识别和提取核电事件链-响应任务-领域资源要素的结构、作用机理等源空间特征，开发物理-IDS空间映射关系模型和多维IDS空间建模方法，通过快速、规范的多维空间映射建模将源空间集成化决策问题迁移到IDS空间描述；其次，针对IDS领域要素间的语义和语用异构性，基于语义网、Petri网等技术发现其异构性冲突，研究跨领域的互操作机制；再次，针对IDS空间结构无序性，基于系统重构、语义推理等方法，研究有序化核应急决策推理机制；最后，开发应用推理实验，验证方法的有效性。. 课题重要结果及其科学意义：首先，集成空间映射关系模型的构建可突破物理空间异构领域系统集成的异构性、无序性和核应急决策问题描述的复杂性等方面的技术屏障，抽象出事件演化、应对机理、领域系统结构和有序化规则空间映射的一般规律，将源空间难以求解的复杂应急决策问题迁移到目标空间通过语义推理的方式进行处理，具有较强的理论创新意义。其次，集成化决策方法论有良好的可扩展性，可与核应急以外的应急需求结合，形成一般性的集成技术，促进情报科学、认知科学、系统科学、信息科学、核辐射防护等多学科的知识融合与创新。其应用意义表现为：为闲散、异构异质应急资源的整合优化提供实际的理论指导，为跨领域集成化决策支持平台的设计与开发提供理论支持，提高应急资源利用率和灾害损失率等。