绿洲城市扩张对MODS格局的生态胁迫机理研究

Urban ecological stress is major topics of urbanization in china, and also the outstanding problems of oasis urbanization. Oasis urban expansion will greatly impact elements of circulation and landscape transformation in inland river basin, and stree the ecological stability and spatial balance of MODS pattern. So the element division and landscape difference of MODS is the key tache to discove the eco-stress mechanism of oasis urban expansion. How to analys the stress process of element division and landscape difference drived by oasis city expansion? and identify its mechanism based on the MODS pattern stabilization and eco-balance? This project focus on the urban agglomeration of Tianshen Mountain North Slope in Xinjiang as the object; centre on the scientific problems of element division and landscape difference and its safety problems; to structure analitical framework with Regional urban structure, Energy ecology theory, and GIS spatial analysis, analogue Simulation technology, et al; and to construct its index system and analysis model by ESF and PSR analytical mode, and to organize the research contents with urban dynamic driving, key eco-elements process relation, landscape eco pattern response, natural injure and eco safety stress, and to test its stress relationship with natural value accounting and ecological risk assessment. It will analyze the factor and its dynamic mechanism of time-space stress by oasis urban expansion, to discriminate its characteristic variable and main elements; to study time-space differences of eco-element and landscpes pattern and its eco-risk in inland river, and to establish the stress relationship and its simulation mode. In order to investigate the eco-stress mechanism by oasis urban expansion based on the watershed scale and landscape level, and explore the mechanism of eco-limit and spatial balance because of oasis urban expansion, to provide the theoretical basis for squencely expansion and healthy development of city.

城市化生态胁迫既是中国特色城市化关注的重大议题，更是绿洲城市化面临的突出问题。绿洲城市扩张影响内陆河流域要素循环及景观转化，胁迫MODS格局生态稳定及空间均衡，MODS要素分化及景观分异成为透视绿洲城市化生态胁迫机理的关键。本项目以新疆天山北坡城市群为对象，围绕MODS要素分化、景观分异及其生态安全科学问题，用区域城市结构、能量生态学等理论及GIS空间分析、仿真模拟等方法建立分析框架，用ESF、PSR分析模式构建指标体系及分析模型，以城市扩张驱动－生态要素关联－景观格局响应－生态安全胁迫为数据驱动组织研究内容，用自然价值核算和生态风险评估验证胁迫关系，通过分析绿洲城市扩张动因及驱动机制，研究MODS要素结构及景观格局时空变化及其生态风险，建立城市扩张对MODS要素分化、景观分异的胁迫关系及模拟模式，探究流域尺度、格局层次的绿洲城市化生态胁迫机理，揭示绿洲城市扩张的生态约束及空间均衡机制。

结题摘要：（从项目的背景、主要研究内容、重要结果、关键数据及其科学意义等做简单概述，800字以内）.一、研究背景.干旱区特有的山地－绿洲－荒漠系统（MODS）及其组成、结构、功能格局，决定了绿洲城市扩张与MODS格局生态关联而时空共轭。研究绿洲城市扩张对MODS要素分化、景观分异的时空作用及其生态效应，可揭示绿洲城市扩张的生态约束及空间均衡(重构)机制,为绿洲城市有序扩张和健康发展提供理论依据。.二、研究内容.根据内陆河流域MODS格局稳定及生态均衡原理，分析了绿洲城市规模形态及属性功能扩张特征及其时空演变规律，评价了绿洲城市空间扩张对MODS格局稳定构成的生态压力，研究了封闭流域尺度、景观格局层次人工绿洲城市化的生态胁迫机理，构建了绿洲城市生态稳定及空间重构机制，初步揭示了绿洲城市扩张特征、格局及时空分异、驱动因子，探索了绿洲城镇化对内陆河流域MODS格局的生态胁迫机理。.三、重要结果.(1)用要素－结构－功能解析(ESF)方法及“压力－状态－响应”(PSR)分析模式，动态模拟绿洲城市扩张过程及其对MODS格局的生态影响及时空胁迫，构建了空间扩张过程－格局统一空间分析。.(2)　实证分析了典型绿洲城市经济活动的时空分异规律，构建了绿洲人口增长及社会经济发展与流域生态格局稳定的空间关联关系，系统诊断了了绿洲城市扩张的驱动因子、特征变量及其时空变化，揭示了绿洲城市扩张的生态位势、空间梯度及其动力机制。.(3)基于城市化驱动、生态因子关联模式，实证研究了MODS景观结构时空分异过程，结构解析景观格局分异与要素分化间的生态关联及交互作用，揭示了绿洲城市化特征指标与景观格局分异间的生态作用关系。.四、关键数据.收集并获得了研究区及典型绿洲的基础地理、空间信息、遥感影像及相应的属性数据，掌握了研究区历年城镇人口增长及社会经济发展、建设用地扩张、土地利用及景观类型数据，为开展项目研究提供了基础条件。.五、科学意义.干旱区生态脆弱、承载有限，城市化生态胁迫问题更为突出，盲目城市化已对生态环境造成现实破坏和潜在威胁。揭示绿洲城市扩张对MODS格局的生态胁迫机理，将拓展对绿洲城市化生态约束、环境反馈及格局重构等敏感问题的研究领域，深化对绿洲化关键要素、过程格局及其环境效应等复杂命题的科学认识，为识别干旱区生态保护红线、实现“一带一路”国家战略目标提供了实证依据。