季风槽内热带气旋生成前期MCV发生发展的数值模拟研究

The topic of tropical cyclone formation is one of the hotspots in tropical cyclone research. However, the mechanism of tropical cyclone formation is still not well understood. Previous studies investigated the influence of the monsoon trough on tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific through the environmental conditions for tropical cyclone formation and providing the necessary initial disturbances for tropical cyclone formation. The associated physical process of tropical cyclone formation within the monsoon trough is not clear. The mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is an essential ingredient for tropical cyclone formation. A few studies has been conducted on the mechanisms of the MCV influencing tropical cyclone formation. But few attention has been paid to the occurrence and development of the MCV. Compared to the previous numerical studies that mostly chose a MCV or a tropical disturbance as the initial field to simulate tropical cyclone formation, this project will employ a high-resolution model and choose a monsoon trough as the initial field to simulate tropical cyclone formation. The occurrence and development of the MCV in the earlier stage of tropical cyclone formation within the monsoon trough will be analyzed and the influence of the monsoon trough and the MCV on tropical cyclone will be discussed. The key scientific issues are listed below. How does the MCV occur and develop in the earlier stage of tropical cyclone formation within the monsoon trough? Are The occurrence and development of the MCV modulated by the monsoon trough? What are the important physical processes that the monsoon trough and the MCV influence tropical cyclone formation?

热带气旋生成是热带气旋研究中的热点之一，目前热带气旋生成的机制仍不清楚。以往研究主要是从热带气旋生成环境条件方面和提供热带气旋生成所需扰动方面研究季风槽对于西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响，关于季风槽影响热带气旋生成的物理过程并不清楚。MCV是热带气旋生成过程中必不可少的系统，MCV影响热带气旋生成的物理机制已有大量研究，但是对于热带气旋生成前期MCV的发生、发展却鲜有关注。前人数值研究中大多以一个MCV或者初始扰动作为初始场模拟热带气旋生成过程，而本项目将采用高分辨率数值模式以季风槽作为初始场模拟季风槽内热带气旋的生成过程，分析季风槽内热带气旋生成前期MCV发生、发展过程，讨论季风槽和MCV在热带气旋生成过程中的作用。所关注的关键科学问题是：季风槽背景下，热带气旋生成前期MCV如何发生发展？ MCV发生发展是否受到季风槽的影响？季风槽和MCV影响热带气旋生成的重要物理过程是什么？