基于利益诱导与风险控制的生鲜农产品有效供给双重驱动机制研究

At the present stage, there is a serious mismatch between the supply and demand of fresh agricultural products in china, which affects the balanced development of economy and society. It is urgent to find out the methods and means to expand the effective supply of fresh agricultural products.Under this background, this paper intends to study how to carry out the interest induction and risk control to promote the effective supply of fresh agricultural products from the perspective of stimulating the supply subject of effective supply. Around this problem, this paper will firstly define the connotation of the effective supply of fresh agricultural products and analyze the influencing factors of supply subjects’ effective supply enthusiasm, based on this, we will analyze the driving mechanism of benefit inducement and risk control to the effective supply of fresh agricultural products under the support of the theory of behavioral motivation and the theory of push and pull. Then, with the means of multi-agent modeling and simulation method,a multi-agent model for the supply and demand system of fresh agricultural products will be established,by abstractly refining the characteristics of supply and demand of agricultural products, behavior decision paradigm and interaction rules,which used to simulate the process of experimental that benefit inducement and risk control change the behavior of the micro supply subject to form the effective supply of fresh agricultural products macroscopically and explore the optimal benefit inducement and risk control driving scheme. According to the study from the concept and system technology, and to drive the three dimensions of effective supply of fresh agricultural products are given induction and risk control interests drive countermeasure system, in order to the international competitiveness in an all-round way.Finally, the paper will put forward some interests driving and risk controlling suggestions about effective supply of fresh agricultural products from three dimensions of idea driven, technology driven and system driven in order to better promote the healthy development of the supply of fresh agricultural product in our country.

现阶段我国生鲜农产品供需不匹配的问题，严重影响了我国经济社会的均衡稳定发展，迫切需要建立生鲜农产品有效供给的科学机制。本课题拟从激发供给主体有效供给积极性的视角，研究如何进行利益诱导与风险控制来驱动生鲜农产品供给有效化。围绕此问题，首先界定生鲜农产品有效供给内涵与分析供给主体有效供给积极性的影响因素，借鉴行为动机等理论解析利益诱导与风险控制对生鲜农产品有效供给的传导驱动机理；然后，应用多主体建模仿真方法，提炼主体属性、行为决策范式与交互规则，建立生鲜农产品供需系统的多Agent模型，并通过仿真实验研究利益诱导与风险控制对微观供给主体行为的改变以驱动生鲜农产品有效供给的过程，探索最佳驱动方案；最后，从理念驱动、技术驱动与制度驱动三个维度给出生鲜农产品有效供给的利益诱导与风险控制驱动对策体系，以期更好的促进我国生鲜农产品供给的健康发展。

现阶段我国生鲜农产品市场存在既过剩又短缺的供需不匹配问题。对此，本课题以生鲜农产品供给为研究对象，构建生鲜农产品供需系统的多Agent模型，揭示利益诱导和风险控制的驱动机理，提出生鲜农产品有效供给的利益诱导与风险控制驱动方案和保障措施。主要结论为：（1）我国生鲜农产品供给的主要问题是供给结构失衡和供给质量偏低，而生鲜农产品的特殊性质、供给主体的素质、相关政策体系不完善等因素是导致问题出现的主要原因。在供给侧改革背景下，从激发供给主体积极性的角度形成内源式驱动成为必然选择。（2）生鲜农产品供给主体的决策过程是对“利益”与“风险”的双向权衡。可以通过利益诱导与风险控制手段改变供给主体对有效供给行为的感知利益与感知风险，提升供给主体对有效供给行为的综合评价，进而驱动供给主体采用有效供给行为，最终实现生鲜农产品的有效供给。（3）单纯利益诱导政策和风险控制政策是无法真正实现扩大生鲜农产品有效供给行为；先通过利益诱导方式形成拉力，再以风险控制的方法去除阻碍力，最终形成双重驱动政策是目前较为有效的解决方法；风险会阻碍利益诱导因子对供给主体的影响，如果不进行风险控制政策，再好的利益诱导政策措施也无法传递。（4）要从营造“优质优价”的舆论氛围、宣传“精准供给”的市场理念和推广“互联网+”式的营销方式等方面构建生鲜农产品有效供给的理念保障体系；要从推动农业科技的创新、加强冷链物流技术的推广和促进农业金融产品的开发等方面构建技术保障体系；要从树立引导制度、形成保障制度和确立奖惩制度等方面构建制度保障体系。本课题研究有助于丰富生鲜农产品有效供给的理论体系，并可为供给主体决策和政府政策制定提供参考；同时本课题取得了众多物化成果，包括学术论文29篇、16万字研究报告（拟于经济科学出版社出版）、决策咨询报告3份（领导批示）、优秀成果奖6项、培养博士和硕士研究生12人。