区域农产品冷链物流的碳减排机理、路径与策略研究

The development of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics is of great significance to promote the Sustainable Increasing Income of Farmers, ensure Product Quality and Consumption Safety, however, the Cold Chain Logistics need to consume more energy, discharge more carbon emission and pollutants, which restricted the sustainable development of the Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics. The key to solve Carbon Emission Reduction of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics is the theory combination of Management Science, System Science, Environment Science and Economics . This Project takes the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone as an object for investigation and empirical study. Firstly, uses the Material Flow Analysis method to construct the Carbon Footprint Model for the Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics from two sides. Secondly, constructs the System Feedback Archetypes and the System Dynamics Models for the Carbon Emission Reduction to reveal the Mechanism of Carbon Emission Reduction. Then, from the Low Carbon Technology Application, Low Carbon Operation Management and Low Carbon Operation Optimization three Angle to study on the Carbon Emission Reduction Path of the Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics. Finally, through the System Feedback Archetypes Analysis and Simulation Analysis on the Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy, it presents and verifies the Feasibility and Effectiveness of this strategy. This Project is paid more attention as being theoretical, scientific and practical; it not only enriches theories of the Low-Carbon Sustainable Development for the Regional Cold Chain Logistics, but also provides Methods for Reference, Referential Paths, Strategy Simulation and Typical Examples for the Carbon Emission Reduction of the Regional Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics.

农产品冷链物流的发展对于促进农民持续增收、确保产品品质和消费安全等都具有十分重要的意义；然而，冷链物流需要消耗更多的能源，排放出更多的碳和污染物，制约了农产品冷链物流的健康可持续性发展。管理科学、系统科学、环境科学和经济学等理论的综合应用是解决农产品冷链物流碳减排的关键。项目以鄱阳湖生态经济区为实证对象，首先，运用物质流分析方法构建宏观区域和微观企业的农产品冷链物流的动态碳足迹模型；其次，在碳减排影响因素分析的基础上，构建碳减排的系统反馈基模和系统动力学模型来揭示碳减排的机理；接着，从宏观的碳税和碳交易，微观的低碳技术应用、低碳运营管理和低碳作业优化五个角度来探讨农产品冷链物流的碳减排路径；最后，通过对碳减排策略的系统反馈基模分析和模拟仿真分析来验证和优化策略。项目突出理论性、科学性和实证性，既丰富了区域冷链物流低碳可持续发展理论，又为区域农产品冷链物流的碳减排提供了科学方法和有效策略。

本项目以推动区域农产品冷链物流的碳减排和可持续性发展为背景，分别从宏观和微观两个层面展开：宏观层面，主要研究了物流行业碳排放量的核算方法，中国省域物流行业生态效率的超效率DEA评价与前沿面分析，省域物流行业碳排放的EKC曲线特征，省域物流行业的碳排放的空间差异，碳税和碳交易政策下物流企业的碳减排行为，并提出了基于系统动力学的碳减排政策设计；微观层面，主要研究了农产品冷链物流的碳足迹核算方法，运用路径分析模型分析了农产品冷链物流碳减排的机理，分别从精益物流、大数据、物联网等角度来探索农产品冷链物流碳减排的路径，研究了农产品冷链物流企业的碳减排技术采纳行为，最后提出了基于系统动力学的农产品冷链物流碳减排策略。. 研究发现：①东部地区物流行业的生态效率比西部地区要高；能源效率表现出较强的时空差异性；能源结构影响污染物的排放，通过能源结构调整可减少污染物排放；运输结构对物流行业的生态效率影响作用不明显。②物流生态效率较高的天津、安徽省域EKC曲线基本呈现比较完整的倒“N”型；而低物流生态效率的陕西、吉林省域由于空间地理、经济发展水平差异以及物流业发展程度等原因，导致倒“N”型EKC曲线特征不明显。③提高碳税率和罚款、降低碳监管成本、完善多样化的激励机制，提高碳监管的初始力度等措施都有助于提高物流企业的碳减排效率，减少物流活动的碳排放量。④考虑碳排放后，网络均衡条件下农产品冷链物流系统整体利润明显提升，另外，零售商订货批次显著影响着系统的均衡状态，系统的均衡价格与均衡利润均随着碳排放成本的增加而增长。⑤冷链物流企业平台生态圈中的资源共享和价值共创活动对于冷链物流企业的绿色转型和低碳发展有着重要作用。. 研究结论不仅基本摸清了中国省域物流产业碳排放情况和特征，而且探索了农产品冷链物流碳减排的影响机理和路径，丰富了物流产业低碳可持续发展理论，为区域农产品冷链物流的碳减排实践提供了理论指导和策略支撑。