利用叶面积指数研究青藏高原荒漠化演变的时空特征

As one of the most serious problems on global environmental and social society，desertification receives attention from the world, and its occurrence in Tibetan Plateau is sensitive to climate and fragile ecological more clearly as an increasing frequent of extreme climate events and human destruction of the environment in recent years. It has leaded to an obvious impact on human environment and socio-economic development of plateau itself and its surrounding area. In this project, the leaf area index is taken as a public indicator of desertification, combining with the reanalysis data, satellite data, ground observations and output of CMIP5, to analysis the distribution patterns and space-time variations of desertification on Tibetan Plateau, and explore the effects of extreme climate change and human activities on the desertification of Tibetan Plateau. The results attempt to provide a prediction of trend of desertification over Tibetan Plateau by model output results under different future emission scenarios, initially describe the potential of desertification region on Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, this project will not only provide a theoretical basis for the construction and restoration of ecological environment over the Tibetan Plateau, but also offer a more scientific theory for economic development in Tibetan plateau.

荒漠化问题作为当今全球最严重的环境与社会经济问题之一，引起了世界各国的普遍关注。青藏高原作为全球典型的生态气候敏感区域，其荒漠化问题日益突出，尤其是近年来频繁出现的青藏高原极端天气事件以及人类活动对环境的破坏，更加凸显了这一问题，这将对青藏高原本身及周边地区的环境和社会经济发展造成严重影响。本项目拟将叶面积指数（LAI）作为荒漠化的代表性指标，通过综合分析再分析数据、卫星遥感、地面观测以及第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）模式输出数据等多种资料，揭示青藏高原荒漠化的时空演变规律；探究极端气候变化和人类活动对于青藏高原荒漠化的影响；并结合模式输出结果尝试预估未来不同排放情景下青藏高原荒漠化的变化趋势，初步提供潜在的青藏高原荒漠化区域范围。本项目的研究不仅为青藏高原建设和恢复生态环境提供理论基础，更为国家发展高原经济提供科学依据。