基于动态负荷的城市高密度地区防灾空间解析与规划应对

As China's rapid urban development, the spatial density of the city becomes more and more higher. Due to the poor ability of disaster prevention of high density urban area, moreover, disaster planning while there is considerable passivity, it has great significance to construct disaster prevention space system from the perspective of the initiative disaster prevention. First, the subject start with the disaster prevention mechanism and coupling mechanism of the elements of disaster prevention space, and then the complex disaster preventon space system of above and below ground of high-density urban areas is constructed systematically; Next,modeling the dynamic distribution of population in high-density area, combined with evaluation and simulation of dynamic loads disaster prevention space based on big data and GIS technology, the disaster prevention space unit division and layout optimization mode of urban high-density area can be established. Based on the above, by analyzing the key planning parameters that impact the effectiveness of disaster prevention space, the subject will establish the evaluation method of urban spatial planning index which based on the optimization of disaster prevention space, then put forward the corresponding control indicators and countemeasures in the perspective of above and below ground space integrated planning, further more the subject is expected to provide effective support and theoretical basis for disaster planning and construction of high-density urban areas.

在我国城市化高速发展下，城市高密度化已经成为趋势。由于城市高密度地区自身空间形态的适灾性差，同时防灾规划存在着相当的被动性，从主动防灾视角构建其防灾空间体系有重要的意义。课题拟首先从防灾空间各要素的防灾机理和耦合机制入手，系统构建城市高密度地区地上地下一体化的复合防灾空间体系；通过高密度地区人口的动态分布建模，结合大数据和GIS技术对防灾空间的动态负荷进行仿真和评估，建立城市高密度地区的防灾空间单元划分和布局优化模式；在以上基础上，建立基于防灾空间动态负荷优化的城市空间规划指标评价方法，提出相应的地上地下一体化规划控制指标和对策，为我国城市高密度地区的防灾规划和建设提供有效的理论支撑和依据。

在我国城市快速发展和局部高密度化的背景下，根据人口的动态分布和避难行为特点构建相应的复合立体防灾空间体系，对提高城市空间的防灾能力非常重要。本课题在三年研究期间，共开展了四个方面的研究工作，一个是城市高密度地区的防灾空间分析与整合，二是多空间尺度下人口动态分布和避难空间的需求与影响机制，三是基于动态避难行为的防灾空间评价、规划策略与方法，四是立体复合空间对环境的影响及发展趋势，完成了任务书规定的内容。通过项目研究，探讨了多元灾害背景下城市高密度地区的复合防灾空间的组成和体系，揭示了人口动态分布条件下对防灾空间的影响和需求，丰富和完善了城市空间规划中综合防灾理论和方法，为城市可持续发展和韧性提高提供了理论和技术支撑。